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December 16, 2004

MIL⇄OAK

MIL won this trade +$4.0M surplus MIL won this trade +0.8 WAR
MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$4.0M net +0.8
received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $28M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2005 odds 19% → 22% (+2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Nelson CruzDH/OF·24y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Justin LehrP·27y·R/R
−$1.6M−$1.6M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1
Prior
#243 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form -0.1/yr over 0.9 season
Talent
0.10/yr blended
Horizon
5.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline
OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$4.0M net -0.8
received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $38M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 3.8 ± 5 expected · -0.8 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2005 odds 53% → 49% (-3.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Keith Ginter2B/3B·29y·R/R
+$12.1M+$12.1M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 3.8± 5 exp WARrealized -0.8
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.8/yr over 1.4 season
Talent
1.04/yr blended
Horizon
4.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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