RRosternomics

Brewers MIL

GM: Douglas Melvin

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 11 in this regime · payroll 0.45× league · TAB -8.0
-8.0TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-3.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-8.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
38%dead money %20th/30
0.420win %25th/30
16.3roster fWAR28th/30
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$31Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFScott Podsednik 123GBrady Clark 6GJason Conti 1G
LFGeoff Jenkins 123GBrady Clark 25GMark Smith 12G
RFJohn Vander Wal 83GBrady Clark 82GJason Conti 19G
SSRoyce Clayton 141GBill Hall 18GEnrique Cruz 13G
2BKeith Ginter 53GBill Hall 18GEnrique Cruz 6G
3BWes Helms 130GKeith Ginter 40GEnrique Cruz 2G
1BRichie Sexson 162G
STARTERSBen Sheets 3.2WARGlendon Rusch 2.3WARMatt Kinney 1.5WARDoug Davis 0.3WARTodd Ritchie 0.2WAR
CEddie Pérez 102GKeith Osik 78G
DHBrooks Kieschnick 4GGeoff Jenkins 1GEric Young Sr. 1G
BULLPEN Dan Kolb 21svLuis Vizcaino 9hLeo Estrella 9hMike Crudale 4hJohn Foster 3hBrooks Kieschnick 2hMatt Ford 1hShane Nance 1h
CEddie Pérez 102 · Keith Osik 78
1BRichie Sexson 162
2BKeith Ginter 53 · Bill Hall 18 · Enrique Cruz 6
3BWes Helms 130 · Keith Ginter 40 · Enrique Cruz 2
SSRoyce Clayton 141 · Bill Hall 18 · Enrique Cruz 13
LFGeoff Jenkins 123 · Brady Clark 25 · Mark Smith 12
CFScott Podsednik 123 · Brady Clark 6 · Jason Conti 1
RFJohn Vander Wal 83 · Brady Clark 82 · Jason Conti 19
DHBrooks Kieschnick 4 · Geoff Jenkins 1 · Eric Young Sr. 1
SPBen Sheets 3.2 · Glendon Rusch 2.3 · Matt Kinney 1.5 · Doug Davis 0.3 · Todd Ritchie 0.2
BP Dan Kolb 21 · Luis Vizcaino 9 · Leo Estrella 9 · Mike Crudale 4 · John Foster 3 · Brooks Kieschnick 2 · Matt Ford 1 · Shane Nance 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Richie Sexson 28 FA-elig 1623.6 5.1 +1.2
Scott Podsednik 27 pre-arb 1543.2 0.3 +5.4
Ben Sheets 24 pre-arb 343.2 0.4 +5.3
Geoff Jenkins 28 arb 1243.1 5.2 +0.4
Glendon Rusch 28 FA-elig 332.3 4.2 -0.1
Matt Kinney 26 arb 331.5 0.3 +2.4
John Vander Wal 37 FA-elig 1171.2 0.6 +1.7
Eric Young Sr.↔ SFG 36 FA-elig 1091.2 1.6 +0.4
Wes Helms 27 arb 1340.9 0.6 +1.0
Dan Kolb 28 370.9
Keith Ginter 27 arb 1270.7 0.3 +0.9
Brooks Kieschnick 31 700.7
Keith Osik 34 FA-elig 800.6 0.5 +0.6
Eddie Pérez 35 FA-elig 1070.4 0.5 +0.2
Curt Leskanic↔ KCR 35 FA-elig 260.3 1.8 -1.3
Doug Davis↔ TEX 27 80.3
Brady Clark 30 arb 1280.2 0.3 +0.1
Todd Ritchie 31 FA-elig 50.2 1.1 -0.9
Matt Ford 22 pre-arb 250.1 0.3 -0.1
Mike Crudale↔ STL 26 90.1
Dave Burba 36 170.0
Bill Hall 23 52-0.0
Wes Obermueller 26 12-0.0
Rickie Weeks Jr. 20 7-0.1
Shane Nance 25 pre-arb 26-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Jason Conti 28 arb 30-0.2 0.3 -0.6
David Manning 30 2-0.2
Luis Martinez 23 4-0.2
John Foster 25 pre-arb 23-0.3 0.3 -0.8
Wayne Franklin 29 arb 36-0.3 0.3 -0.8
Mike DeJean↔ STL 32 FA-elig 58-0.3 1.3 -1.9
Valerio De Los Santos↔ PHI 30 arb 45-0.4 0.8 -1.6
Jayson Durocher 28 pre-arb 6-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Ruben Quevedo 24 9-0.5
Mark Smith 33 33-0.5
Luis Vizcaino 28 arb 75-0.5 0.4 -1.3
Leo Estrella 28 58-0.5
Peter Zoccolillo 26 20-0.6
Alex Sanchez↔ DET 26 pre-arb 43-0.6 0.1 -1.1
Jeffrey Hammonds↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 10-0.6 1.8 -2.9
Royce Clayton 33 FA-elig 146-0.8 1.5 -2.9
Enrique Cruz 21 pre-arb 60-1.3 0.3 -2.6

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Scott Podsednik3.2
Matt Kinney1.5
John Vander Wal1.2
Wes Helms0.9
Dan Kolb0.9
Brooks Kieschnick0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
José Hernández4.5
Matt Stairs1.7
Alex Ochoa1.0
Lenny Harris0.8
Tyler Houston0.7
Ray King0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$30.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Richie Sexson286.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Glendon Rusch286.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
Curt Leskanic3510.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Jeffrey Hammonds3210.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Eric Young Sr.3611.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Royce Clayton3312.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Mike DeJean326.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Todd Ritchie316.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
John Vander Wal3712.000$550kFREE AGENT
Eddie Pérez358.000$500kFREE AGENT
Keith Osik347.000$455kFREE AGENT
Dave Burba3613.000$388kFREE AGENT
Brooks Kieschnick317.000$380kFREE AGENT
Mark Smith339.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Geoff Jenkins285.000$5.2MFREE AGENT
Valerio De Los Santos305.000$816kFREE AGENT
Wes Helms275.000$575kFREE AGENT
Luis Vizcaino284.000$370kARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Kinney263.000$318kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wayne Franklin293.000$315kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brady Clark303.000$312kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Ginter273.000$301kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Conti283.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Davis274.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Kolb284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leo Estrella283.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ruben Quevedo243.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Ben Sheets242.000$428kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayson Durocher281.000$320kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Podsednik272.000$300kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Foster251.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enrique Cruz210.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Nance251.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Ford220.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Sanchez262.000$102kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Hall231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Martinez23
Mike Crudale26
Wes Obermueller261.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Manning30
Rickie Weeks Jr.200.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter Zoccolillo26

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3