MIL⇄SFG

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$8.0M net +2.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $31M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2004 odds 5% → 5% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Glenn WoolardP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#307 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Carlos VillanuevaP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$8.0M net -2.3

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2004 odds 46% → 43% (-3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wayne FranklinP·30y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#1078 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Leo EstrellaP·29y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.