RRosternomics

Marlins MIA

President of baseball ops: Larry Beinfest · GM: Michael Hill

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 11 in this regime · payroll 0.61× league · TAB +3.9
+3.9TAB — talent above budget12th/30
+4.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-6.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
27%dead money %13th/30
0.494win %17th/30
32.1roster fWAR18th/30
+20surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/30
$56Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFCameron Maybin 77GEmilio Bonifácio 17GScott Cousins 8G
LFChris Coghlan 90GLogan Morrison 62GEmilio Bonifácio 7G
RFGiancarlo Stanton 98GBrett Carroll 20GEmilio Bonifácio 6G
SSHanley Ramirez 140GOzzie Martínez 11GEmilio Bonifácio 9G
2BDan Uggla 158GEmilio Bonifácio 5GBrian Barden 2G
3BWes Helms 90GChad Tracy 34GBrian Barden 16G
1BGaby Sanchez 149GChad Tracy 7GWes Helms 2G
STARTERSJosh Johnson 5.6WARAníbal Sánchez 3.9WARRicky Nolasco 2.3WARAlex Sanabia 1.1WARChris Volstad 0.9WAR
CRonny Paulino 85GBrad Davis 32GBrett Hayes 24G
DHJorge Cantu 9GBryan Petersen 1G
BULLPEN Juan Carlos Oviedo 30svClay Hensley 22hJose Veras 19hWill Ohman 18hBrian Sanches 12hBurke Badenhop 8hTaylor Tankersley 6hTim Wood 3h
CRonny Paulino 85 · Brad Davis 32 · Brett Hayes 24
1BGaby Sanchez 149 · Chad Tracy 7 · Wes Helms 2
2BDan Uggla 158 · Emilio Bonifácio 5 · Brian Barden 2
3BWes Helms 90 · Chad Tracy 34 · Brian Barden 16
SSHanley Ramirez 140 · Ozzie Martínez 11 · Emilio Bonifácio 9
LFChris Coghlan 90 · Logan Morrison 62 · Emilio Bonifácio 7
CFCameron Maybin 77 · Emilio Bonifácio 17 · Scott Cousins 8
RFGiancarlo Stanton 98 · Brett Carroll 20 · Emilio Bonifácio 6
DHJorge Cantu 9 · Bryan Petersen 1
SPJosh Johnson 5.6 · Aníbal Sánchez 3.9 · Ricky Nolasco 2.3 · Alex Sanabia 1.1 · Chris Volstad 0.9
BP Juan Carlos Oviedo 30 · Clay Hensley 22 · Jose Veras 19 · Will Ohman 18 · Brian Sanches 12 · Burke Badenhop 8 · Taylor Tankersley 6 · Tim Wood 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Josh Johnson 26 arb 285.6 3.8 +9.4
Dan Uggla 30 arb 1594.6 7.8 +3.0
Hanley Ramirez 26 arb 1424.2 7.0 +2.8
Aníbal Sánchez 26 arb 333.9 1.2 +8.0
Giancarlo Stanton 20 1002.7 0.3 +6.0
Ricky Nolasco 27 arb 262.3 3.8 +1.7
Gaby Sanchez 26 pre-arb 1511.8 0.4 +3.8
Cody Ross↔ SFG 29 FA-elig 1201.7 3.5 +0.5
Juan Carlos Oviedo 28 arb 681.4 2.0 +1.3
Clay Hensley 30 arb 681.3 0.4 +2.7
Emilio Bonifácio 25 arb 731.2 0.4 +2.3
Alex Sanabia 21 151.1
Logan Morrison 22 621.0 0.3 +2.0
Chris Volstad 23 pre-arb 300.9 0.4 +1.7
Chris Coghlan 25 pre-arb 910.9 0.5 +1.7
Donnie Murphy 27 290.8
Nate Robertson↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 190.7 9.0 -7.4
Scott Cousins 25 270.5
Ozzie Martínez 22 140.5
Cameron Maybin 23 arb 820.4 0.4 +0.6
Burke Badenhop 27 pre-arb 530.3 0.4 +0.3
Ronny Paulino 29 arb 910.2 1.1 -0.6
Brett Carroll 27 arb 320.2 0.4 +0.1
Brian Sanches 31 arb 610.2 0.4 -0.0
Will Ohman↔ BAL 32 FA-elig 170.2 0.3 +0.0
Jose Veras 29 arb 480.1 0.6 -0.3
Chris Leroux↔ PIT 26 170.1
Steve Cishek 24 30.1 0.0 +0.1
Hunter Jones 26 30.0
Rick Van Den Hurk↔ BAL 25 20.0
Scott Strickland 34 3-0.0
Chris Hatcher 25 5-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Jay Buente 26 8-0.0
Renyel Pinto 27 arb 20-0.1 1.1 -1.2
Sean West 24 2-0.1
Brett Sinkbeil 25 3-0.1
Chad Tracy↔ CHC 30 FA-elig 41-0.1 0.5 -0.8
James Houser 25 1-0.1
Jorge Sosa 33 22-0.1
Jose Ceda 23 8-0.2
Sandy Rosario 24 2-0.2
Jorge Cantu↔ TEX 28 FA-elig 97-0.2 4.6 -5.0
Tim Wood 27 26-0.2
Mike Rivera 33 7-0.2
Brian Barden 29 arb 35-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Jhan Mariñez 21 4-0.2
John Baker 29 pre-arb 23-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Brett Hayes 26 26-0.3
Dan Meyer 28 FA-elig 13-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Brad Davis 27 33-0.3
Mike Lamb 34 FA-elig 39-0.4 0.5 -1.3
Hector Luna 30 27-0.4
Adalberto Mendez 28 5-0.5
Andrew Miller 25 arb 9-0.5 1.8 -3.0
Bryan Petersen 24 23-0.6
Wes Helms 34 FA-elig 127-0.6 0.9 -2.4
Taylor Tankersley 27 arb 27-0.6 0.4 -1.9

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Giancarlo Stanton2.7
Clay Hensley1.3
Alex Sanabia1.1
Logan Morrison1.0
Donnie Murphy0.8
Nate Robertson0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Kiko Calero1.5
Nick Johnson0.6
Brendan Donnelly0.5
Ross Gload0.5
Alejandro De Aza0.2
Cristhian Martinez0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$56.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Nate Robertson328.000$9.0MFREE AGENT
Jorge Cantu286.000$4.6MFREE AGENT
Cody Ross297.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Wes Helms3412.000$950k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Chad Tracy306.000$535kFREE AGENT
Mike Lamb3410.000$500kFREE AGENT
Dan Meyer286.000$415kFREE AGENT
Will Ohman3210.000$338kFREE AGENT
Scott Strickland3411.000FREE AGENT
Mike Rivera339.000FREE AGENT
Jorge Sosa338.000FREE AGENT
Hector Luna306.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Dan Uggla304.000$7.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Hanley Ramirez265.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Ricky Nolasco274.000$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Johnson265.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Juan Carlos Oviedo285.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Andrew Miller254.000$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez264.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Paulino295.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Renyel Pinto274.000$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Veras294.000$550kARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Hensley305.000$425kFREE AGENT
Taylor Tankersley274.000$425kARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio253.000$420kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Barden293.000$415kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Sanches314.000$412kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin233.000$405kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Carroll273.000$404kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Van Den Hurk253.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Chris Coghlan251.000$475kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Volstad232.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Baker292.000$415kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Burke Badenhop272.000$408kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gaby Sanchez262.000$401kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Hatcher250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Morrison220.000$276kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Giancarlo Stanton200.000$258kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cishek240.000$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Murphy271.075Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Wood271.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Sinkbeil25
James Houser25
Brett Hayes261.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Davis27
Adalberto Mendez28
Chris Leroux261.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy Rosario240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Ceda230.096Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean West24
Hunter Jones261.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhan Mariñez210.095Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ozzie Martínez22
Jay Buente26
Scott Cousins250.108Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Sanabia210.127Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Petersen240.067Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3