RRosternomics

Marlins MIA

President of baseball ops: Larry Beinfest · GM: Michael Hill

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 10 in this regime · payroll 0.44× league · TAB +9.5
+9.5TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+15.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-3.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
33%dead money %12th/30
0.537win %9th/30
33.7roster fWAR15th/30
+38surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$40Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFCody Ross 103GCameron Maybin 52GAlfredo Amezaga 14G
LFChris Coghlan 123GJeremy Hermida 51GBrett Carroll 15G
RFJeremy Hermida 81GBrett Carroll 60GCody Ross 57G
SSHanley Ramirez 146GEmilio Bonifácio 20GAlfredo Amezaga 5G
2BDan Uggla 158GEmilio Bonifácio 7GChris Coghlan 1G
3BEmilio Bonifácio 86GWes Helms 70GJorge Cantu 45G
1BNick Johnson 129GJorge Cantu 111GRoss Gload 41G
STARTERSJosh Johnson 6.2WARRicky Nolasco 4.0WARSean West 0.7WARAndrew Miller 0.5WARAníbal Sánchez 0.5WAR
CJohn Baker 105GRonny Paulino 77G
DHJorge Cantu 7GJeremy Hermida 2G
BULLPEN Juan Carlos Oviedo 26svDan Meyer 20hRenyel Pinto 13hKiko Calero 12hBrian Sanches 9hMatt Lindstrom 8hLuis Ayala 3hBurke Badenhop 2h
CJohn Baker 105 · Ronny Paulino 77
1BNick Johnson 129 · Jorge Cantu 111 · Ross Gload 41
2BDan Uggla 158 · Emilio Bonifácio 7 · Chris Coghlan 1
3BEmilio Bonifácio 86 · Wes Helms 70 · Jorge Cantu 45
SSHanley Ramirez 146 · Emilio Bonifácio 20 · Alfredo Amezaga 5
LFChris Coghlan 123 · Jeremy Hermida 51 · Brett Carroll 15
CFCody Ross 103 · Cameron Maybin 52 · Alfredo Amezaga 14
RFJeremy Hermida 81 · Brett Carroll 60 · Cody Ross 57
DHJorge Cantu 7 · Jeremy Hermida 2
SPJosh Johnson 6.2 · Ricky Nolasco 4.0 · Sean West 0.7 · Andrew Miller 0.5 · Aníbal Sánchez 0.5
BP Juan Carlos Oviedo 26 · Dan Meyer 20 · Renyel Pinto 13 · Kiko Calero 12 · Brian Sanches 9 · Matt Lindstrom 8 · Luis Ayala 3 · Burke Badenhop 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Hanley Ramirez 25 arb 1517.1 5.5 +11.4
Josh Johnson 25 arb 346.2 1.4 +13.4
Ricky Nolasco 26 arb 314.0 2.4 +7.2
Chris Coghlan 24 1282.7 0.3 +6.1
Dan Uggla 29 arb 1582.6 5.3 +0.7
Cody Ross 28 FA-elig 1511.6 2.2 +1.6
Kiko Calero 34 FA-elig 671.5 0.5 +3.0
Ronny Paulino 28 arb 801.4 0.4 +2.9
Brett Carroll 26 pre-arb 921.3 0.4 +2.7
John Baker 28 pre-arb 1121.0 0.4 +2.1
Cameron Maybin 22 pre-arb 540.9 0.4 +1.9
Jorge Cantu 27 arb 1490.9 3.5 -1.3
Sean West 23 200.7
Burke Badenhop 26 pre-arb 350.7 0.4 +1.3
Nick Johnson↔ WSN 30 FA-elig 350.6 1.4 -0.1
Brendan Donnelly 37 300.5
Andrew Miller 24 arb 200.5 2.5 -1.3
Ross Gload 33 FA-elig 1250.5 1.9 -0.7
Aníbal Sánchez 25 arb 160.5 0.4 +0.7
Dan Meyer 27 arb 710.5 0.4 +0.7
Alejandro De Aza 25 pre-arb 220.2 0.4 +0.1
Wes Helms 33 FA-elig 1130.2 0.9 -0.5
Brian Sanches 30 arb 470.2 0.4 +0.0
Cristhian Martinez 27 150.2
Brett Hayes 25 pre-arb 140.1 0.4 -0.1
Gaby Sanchez 25 pre-arb 210.1 0.4 -0.2
Tim Wood 26 pre-arb 180.1 0.4 -0.3
Renyel Pinto 26 arb 730.1 0.4 -0.3
David Davidson 25 10.0
Chris Leroux 25 pre-arb 50.0 0.4 -0.4
Jeremy Hermida 25 arb 129-0.0 2.2 -2.3
Matt Lindstrom 29 pre-arb 54-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Logan Kensing↔ WSN 26 arb 6-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Hayden Penn 24 arb 16-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Graham Taylor 25 3-0.1
Andy González 27 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Carlos Martinez 27 2-0.2
Rick Van Den Hurk 24 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Luis Ayala↔ MIN 31 FA-elig 10-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Alfredo Amezaga 31 FA-elig 27-0.2 1.3 -1.8
Chris Volstad 22 pre-arb 30-0.2 0.4 -0.9
John Koronka 28 2-0.5
Emilio Bonifácio 24 pre-arb 127-0.5 0.4 -1.6
Juan Carlos Oviedo 27 arb 75-0.8 0.4 -2.3

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Chris Coghlan2.7
Kiko Calero1.5
Ronny Paulino1.4
Sean West0.7
Nick Johnson0.6
Brendan Donnelly0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Josh Willingham2.6
Mark Hendrickson1.4
Scott Olsen1.1
Joe Nelson0.9
Kevin Gregg0.9
Arthur Rhodes0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$40.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Cody Ross286.000$2.2M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Ross Gload339.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Nick Johnson308.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Alfredo Amezaga317.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Wes Helms3311.000$950k$950k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Kiko Calero346.000$500kFREE AGENT
Luis Ayala316.000$342kFREE AGENT
Brendan Donnelly377.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Hanley Ramirez254.000$5.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Uggla293.000$5.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Cantu275.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Andrew Miller243.000$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Nolasco263.000$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hermida254.000$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Johnson254.000$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Paulino284.000$440kARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Carlos Oviedo274.000$412kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Sanches303.000$405kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Renyel Pinto263.000$404kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Meyer275.000$400kFREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez253.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hayden Penn244.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Kensing265.000$124kFREE AGENT
John Koronka284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Martinez273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Andy González272.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Lindstrom292.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Baker281.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Leroux250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Van Den Hurk242.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Hayes250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin222.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Carroll262.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Wood260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio242.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Burke Badenhop261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gaby Sanchez251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Volstad221.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejandro De Aza252.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Coghlan240.000$328kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristhian Martinez270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Davidson25
Sean West23
Graham Taylor25

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3