MIA⇄BAL

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$1.6M net +0.6

received +$0.8M−$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2010 odds 10% → 10% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Will OhmanP·32y·L/L

+$0.9M−$1.8M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net −$1.6M net -0.6

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2010 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rick van den HurkP·25y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.