MIA⇄WSN

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$4.0M net +0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2009 odds 13% → 14% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle GundersonP·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1396 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net −$4.0M net -0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2009 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Logan KensingP·26y·R/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.