MIA⇄KCR

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net −$1.6M net +0.5

received −$0.8M−$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2009 odds 13% → 14% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ross Gload1B·33y·L/L

−$0.7M−$2.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

-0.52/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$1.6M net -0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2009 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric BasurtoP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#995 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.