RRosternomics

Marlins MIA

President of baseball ops: Larry Beinfest · GM: Michael Hill

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 9 in this regime · payroll 0.31× league · TAB +14.3
+14.3TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+17.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-6.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
58%dead money %27th/30
0.522win %14th/30
33.8roster fWAR15th/30
+44surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$27Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFCody Ross 109GAlfredo Amezaga 79GCameron Maybin 8G
LFJosh Willingham 98GLuis Gonzalez 64GJacque Jones 27G
RFJeremy Hermida 132GCody Ross 35GLuis Gonzalez 22G
SSHanley Ramirez 150GAlfredo Amezaga 19GRobert Andino 4G
2BDan Uggla 144GRobert Andino 15GAlfredo Amezaga 10G
3BJorge Cantu 129GWes Helms 60GAlfredo Amezaga 15G
1BMike Jacobs 119GJorge Cantu 66GWes Helms 42G
STARTERSRicky Nolasco 4.2WARJosh Johnson 2.0WARAndrew Miller 1.6WARChris Volstad 1.4WARMark Hendrickson 1.4WAR
CMatt Treanor 65GJohn Baker 59GMike Rabelo 32G
DHMike Jacobs 6GLuis Gonzalez 2GHanley Ramirez 1G
BULLPEN Kevin Gregg 29svArthur Rhodes 24hRenyel Pinto 17hMatt Lindstrom 14hJoe Nelson 11hDoug Waechter 9hJustin Miller 7hLogan Kensing 5h
CMatt Treanor 65 · John Baker 59 · Mike Rabelo 32
1BMike Jacobs 119 · Jorge Cantu 66 · Wes Helms 42
2BDan Uggla 144 · Robert Andino 15 · Alfredo Amezaga 10
3BJorge Cantu 129 · Wes Helms 60 · Alfredo Amezaga 15
SSHanley Ramirez 150 · Alfredo Amezaga 19 · Robert Andino 4
LFJosh Willingham 98 · Luis Gonzalez 64 · Jacque Jones 27
CFCody Ross 109 · Alfredo Amezaga 79 · Cameron Maybin 8
RFJeremy Hermida 132 · Cody Ross 35 · Luis Gonzalez 22
DHMike Jacobs 6 · Luis Gonzalez 2 · Hanley Ramirez 1
SPRicky Nolasco 4.2 · Josh Johnson 2.0 · Andrew Miller 1.6 · Chris Volstad 1.4 · Mark Hendrickson 1.4
BP Kevin Gregg 29 · Arthur Rhodes 24 · Renyel Pinto 17 · Matt Lindstrom 14 · Joe Nelson 11 · Doug Waechter 9 · Justin Miller 7 · Logan Kensing 5

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2008 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Hanley Ramirez 24 arb 1537.4 0.4 +16.5
Dan Uggla 28 pre-arb 1464.2 0.4 +9.1
Ricky Nolasco 25 pre-arb 344.2 0.4 +9.1
Cody Ross 27 arb 1453.5 0.4 +7.6
Jorge Cantu 26 arb 1552.6 0.5 +5.5
Josh Willingham 29 arb 1022.6 0.4 +5.5
Josh Johnson 24 arb 142.0 0.4 +4.1
John Baker 27 611.7 0.2 +3.8
Andrew Miller 23 pre-arb 291.6 2.2 +1.3
Chris Volstad 21 151.4
Mark Hendrickson 34 FA-elig 371.4 1.5 +1.6
Alfredo Amezaga 30 FA-elig 1251.2 0.9 +1.7
Scott Olsen 24 arb 341.1 0.4 +2.0
Cameron Maybin 21 81.0 0.4 +1.9
Joe Nelson 33 590.9
Matt Lindstrom 28 pre-arb 660.9 0.4 +1.6
Kevin Gregg 30 arb 720.9 2.5 -0.6
Arthur Rhodes↔ SEA 38 250.6
Justin Miller 30 FA-elig 460.4 0.8 +0.2
Doug Waechter 27 480.4
Rick Van Den Hurk 23 pre-arb 40.2 0.4 +0.1
Logan Kensing 25 arb 480.2 0.4 -0.0
Aníbal Sánchez 24 pre-arb 100.1 0.4 -0.1
Robert Andino 24 arb 440.1 0.4 -0.1
Gaby Sanchez 24 50.1
Wes Helms 32 1320.0 2.1 -2.0
Dallas McPherson 27 110.0 0.4 -0.4
Burke Badenhop 25 13-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Jason Wood 38 FA-elig 3-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Jai Miller 23 1-0.0
Paul Lo Duca↔ WSN 36 FA-elig 21-0.0 1.6 -1.6
Brett Carroll 25 pre-arb 26-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Jesus Delgado 24 2-0.1
Jeremy Hermida 24 arb 142-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Lee Gardner 33 FA-elig 7-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Frankie De La Cruz 24 6-0.3
Jacque Jones↔ DET 33 FA-elig 18-0.3 2.7 -3.4
Renyel Pinto 25 pre-arb 67-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Ryan Tucker 21 13-0.4
Paul Hoover 32 FA-elig 13-0.5 0.4 -1.5
Taylor Tankersley 25 pre-arb 25-0.6 0.4 -1.7
Luis Gonzalez 40 FA-elig 136-0.8 2.0 -3.7
Matt Treanor 32 arb 65-0.9 0.7 -2.7
Mike Jacobs 27 arb 141-1.0 0.4 -2.8
Mike Rabelo 28 pre-arb 34-1.3 0.4 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2007)

PlayerfWAR
Jorge Cantu2.6
John Baker1.7
Andrew Miller1.6
Chris Volstad1.4
Mark Hendrickson1.4
Cameron Maybin1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2007)

Player2007 fWAR
Miguel Cabrera5.0
Sergio Mitre2.2
Dontrelle Willis2.2
Miguel Olivo0.7
Randy Messenger0.3
Todd Linden0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2008 payroll
$27.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2008, 2008–2014. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Jacque Jones339.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Wes Helms3210.000$2.1M$950k$950k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Luis Gonzalez4018.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Paul Lo Duca3610.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Mark Hendrickson346.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Alfredo Amezaga306.000$945k$1.3MFREE AGENT
Justin Miller306.000$750kFREE AGENT
Lee Gardner336.000$402kFREE AGENT
Jason Wood3810.000$390kFREE AGENT
Paul Hoover327.000$390kFREE AGENT
Arthur Rhodes3817.000FREE AGENT
Joe Nelson337.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Kevin Gregg305.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Treanor324.000$705kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Cantu264.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Hanley Ramirez243.000$439kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Olsen243.000$405kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Willingham294.000$405kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Jacobs273.000$395kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hermida243.000$395kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Kensing254.000$390kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Ross275.000$390kFREE AGENT
Robert Andino243.000$390kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Johnson243.000$390kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Waechter275.000FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Andrew Miller232.000$2.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas McPherson270.019$425kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Uggla282.000$417kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Lindstrom281.000$395kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Tankersley252.000$392kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Renyel Pinto252.000$392kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Van Den Hurk231.000$392kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Rabelo282.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Nolasco252.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez242.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin211.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Carroll251.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Burke Badenhop250.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Baker270.000$175kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Delgado24
Frankie De La Cruz241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jai Miller23
Ryan Tucker21
Chris Volstad210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gaby Sanchez240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2008; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3