MIA⇄KCR

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$9.6M net +1.7

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $13M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2009 odds 14% → 14% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan Carlos OviedoP·27y·R/R

+$2.1M+$2.1M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$9.6M net -1.7

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2009 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Jacobs1B·28y·L/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

-0.23/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.