MIA⇄CHC

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$7.2M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2009 odds 14% → 14% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José CedaP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$7.2M net -0.1

received +$8.0M+$4.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2009 odds 13% → 12% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin GreggP·31y·R/R

+$8.2M+$4.4M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.62/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.