RRosternomics
𝕏

Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: Bill Wood

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.09× league · TAB -8.8
-8.8TAB — talent above budget22nd/26
-1.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/26
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars23rd/26
-2.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/26
15%dead money %3rd/26
0.506win %15th/26
26.5roster fWAR22nd/26
-5surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/26
$13Mpayroll $M12th/26

Roster

CFGerald Young 145GBilly Hatcher 25GCasey Candaele 3G
LFBilly Hatcher 124GTerry Puhl 48GLouie Meadows 7G
RFKevin Bass 147GTerry Puhl 33GSteve Henderson 4G
SSRafael Ramirez 154GCraig Reynolds 22GChuck Jackson 3G
2BBill Doran 130GCasey Candaele 45GJim Pankovits 31G
3BBuddy Bell 79GChuck Jackson 32GKen Caminiti 28G
1BGlenn Davis 151GCraig Reynolds 10GBuddy Bell 9G
STARTERSMike Scott 3.2WARNolan Ryan Jr. 3.0WARBob Knepper 1.1WARDanny Darwin 0.8WARJim Deshaies 0.5WAR
CAlex Trevino 74GAlan Ashby 66GCraig Biggio 50G
BULLPEN★ Dave Smith 27svJuan Agosto 0hLarry Andersen 0hDave Meads 0hJeff Heathcock 0hErnie Camacho 0hRocky Childress 0hBrian Meyer 0h
CAlex Trevino 74 · Alan Ashby 66 · Craig Biggio 50
1BGlenn Davis 151 · Craig Reynolds 10 · Buddy Bell 9
2BBill Doran 130 · Casey Candaele 45 · Jim Pankovits 31
3BBuddy Bell 79 · Chuck Jackson 32 · Ken Caminiti 28
SSRafael Ramirez 154 · Craig Reynolds 22 · Chuck Jackson 3
LFBilly Hatcher 124 · Terry Puhl 48 · Louie Meadows 7
CFGerald Young 145 · Billy Hatcher 25 · Casey Candaele 3
RFKevin Bass 147 · Terry Puhl 33 · Steve Henderson 4
SPMike Scott 3.2 · Nolan Ryan Jr. 3.0 · Bob Knepper 1.1 · Danny Darwin 0.8 · Jim Deshaies 0.5
BP★ Dave Smith 27 · Juan Agosto 0 · Larry Andersen 0 · Dave Meads 0 · Jeff Heathcock 0 · Ernie Camacho 0 · Rocky Childress 0 · Brian Meyer 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1988 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Glenn Davis 27 arb 1523.9 0.3 +0.9
Mike Scott 33 FA-elig 323.2 0.7 +0.3
Nolan Ryan Jr. 41 FA-elig 333.0 1.0 -0.0
Bill Doran 30 FA-elig 1322.9 0.9 -0.0
Terry Puhl 31 FA-elig 1131.8 0.9 -0.4
Kevin Bass 29 FA-elig 1571.6 0.9 -0.4
Gerald Young 23 pre-arb 1491.6 0.1 +0.4
Larry Andersen 35 FA-elig 531.5 0.5 +0.0
Rafael Ramirez 30 FA-elig 1551.1 0.9 -0.6
Bob Knepper 34 FA-elig 271.1 1.0 -0.7
Billy Hatcher 27 arb 1450.9 0.2 +0.1
Dave Smith 33 FA-elig 510.9 1.1 -0.8
Danny Darwin 32 FA-elig 440.8 0.8 -0.5
Alex Trevino 30 FA-elig 780.8 0.1 +0.2
Denny Walling↔ STL 34 FA-elig 650.8 0.4 -0.2
Alan Ashby 36 FA-elig 730.7 0.5 -0.2
Buddy Bell↔ CIN 36 FA-elig 740.6 0.6 -0.4
Jim Deshaies 28 arb 310.5 0.2 -0.1
Louie Meadows 27 – 350.4 – –
Chuck Jackson 25 pre-arb 460.3 0.1 +0.0
Bob Forsch↔ STL 38 FA-elig 60.3 0.1 +0.0
Craig Biggio 22 – 500.1 – –
Dave Meads 24 – 220.1 – –
Steve Henderson 35 – 420.1 – –
Cameron Drew 24 – 70.0 – –
Casey Candaele↔ WSN 27 pre-arb 210.0 0.0 -0.0
Rocky Childress 26 – 11-0.0 – –
John Fishel 25 pre-arb 19-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Craig Smajstrla 26 – 8-0.1 – –
Brian Meyer 25 – 8-0.1 – –
Joaquin Andujar 35 FA-elig 23-0.1 0.5 -0.5
Harry Spilman↔ SFG 33 FA-elig 7-0.1 0.0 -0.1
Jim Pankovits 32 arb 68-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Ernie Camacho 33 – 13-0.1 – –
Craig Reynolds 35 FA-elig 78-0.2 0.5 -0.6
Mark Bailey 26 arb 8-0.2 0.1 -0.2
Jeff Heathcock 28 arb 17-0.4 0.1 -0.2
Ken Caminiti 25 pre-arb 30-0.5 0.1 -0.2
Juan Agosto 30 FA-elig 75-0.6 0.2 -0.4

Key additions (new vs 1987)

PlayerfWAR
Rafael Ramirez1.1
Alex Trevino0.8
Buddy Bell0.6
Louie Meadows0.4
Bob Forsch0.3
Craig Biggio0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1987)

Player1987 fWAR
Jose Cruz0.5
Manny Hernandez0.3
Davey Lopes0.1
Dickie Thon0.1
Phil Garner0.1
Rob Mallicoat0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1988 payroll
$12.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 1988, 1988–1994. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc1988198919901991199219931994
Dave Smith338.000$1.1M$1.1M$1.1MFREE AGENT
Bob Knepper3412.000$1.0M$43kFREE AGENT
Nolan Ryan Jr.4122.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Terry Puhl3111.000$950k$950k$800kFREE AGENT
Bill Doran306.000$933k$933k$808kFREE AGENT
Rafael Ramirez308.000$925k$1.1M$1.0M$1.2M$400kFREE AGENT
Kevin Bass296.000$880k$940kFREE AGENT$650k$400k
Danny Darwin3210.000$760k$855k$1.2MFREE AGENT
Mike Scott339.000$667k$1.3M$2.0M$2.4MFREE AGENT
Buddy Bell3616.000$616kFREE AGENT
Craig Reynolds3513.000$500k$600kFREE AGENT
Joaquin Andujar3512.000$450kFREE AGENT
Alan Ashby3615.000$450k$550kFREE AGENT
Larry Andersen3513.000$450k$475k$742kFREE AGENT
Denny Walling3413.000$445kFREE AGENT$300k
Juan Agosto307.000$158k$610k$850kFREE AGENT
Bob Forsch3814.000$65k$975kFREE AGENT
Alex Trevino3010.000$62k$350k$253kFREE AGENT
Harry Spilman3310.000$34k$150kFREE AGENT
Ernie Camacho338.000—FREE AGENT
Steve Henderson3511.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc1988198919901991199219931994
Glenn Davis274.000$340kARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Hatcher274.000$240kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Deshaies284.000$205kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Pankovits324.000$150kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Bailey264.000$100kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Heathcock285.000$72kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1988198919901991199219931994
Gerald Young231.000$85kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Caminiti251.000$80kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chuck Jackson251.000$66kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Fishel250.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Candaele272.000$41kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Biggio220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Childress26–—
Cameron Drew24–—
Louie Meadows272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Meads24–—
Brian Meyer250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Smajstrla26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 1988; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.