HOU⇄STL

HOUHOU Bill Wood net +$3.2M net +0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $0M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1988 odds 3% → 3% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob ForschP·38y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$18.4M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.86/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Dal Maxvill net −$3.2M net -0.1

received +$18.4M+$18.4M ± $21M expected surplus · −$21.6M realized received 3.2 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1988 odds 7% → 6% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Denny Walling1B/3B/OF·34y·L/R

+$18.3M+$18.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$21.6M 3.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.63/yr blended

Horizon

2.2 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.