HOU⇄WSN

HOUHOU Bill Wood net −$0.8M net +2.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $35M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Casey Candaele2B/OF·27y·B/R

+$5.6M+$5.6M± $35M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.1± 4 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Bill Stoneman net +$0.8M net -2.3

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mark BaileyC·26y·B/R

+$4.9M+$4.9M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.