RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Bill Wood

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.09× league · TAB -5.1
-5.1TAB — talent above budget19th/26
-7.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/26
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/26
-5.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/26
44%dead money %23rd/26
0.469win %19th/26
30.2roster fWAR17th/26
-2surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/26
$12Mpayroll $M13th/26

Roster

CFBilly Hatcher 94GGerald Young 67GChuck Jackson 12G
LFJose Cruz 97GBilly Hatcher 51GTerry Puhl 28G
RFKevin Bass 155GTerry Puhl 9GBilly Hatcher 6G
SSCraig Reynolds 129GBuddy Biancalana 38GDickie Thon 31G
2BBill Doran 162GBuddy Biancalana 15GJim Pankovits 9G
3BDenny Walling 79GKen Caminiti 61GChuck Jackson 16G
1BGlenn Davis 151GDenny Walling 16G
STARTERSNolan Ryan Jr. 6.0WARMike Scott 5.3WARDanny Darwin 2.9WARJim Deshaies 0.8WARBob Knepper -0.2WAR
CAlan Ashby 110GRonn Reynolds 38GMark Bailey 27G
BULLPEN★ Dave Smith 24svLarry Andersen 0hDave Meads 0hRocky Childress 0hJuan Agosto 0hAurelio Lopez 0hCharlie Kerfeld 0hJeff Heathcock 0h
CAlan Ashby 110 · Ronn Reynolds 38 · Mark Bailey 27
1BGlenn Davis 151 · Denny Walling 16
2BBill Doran 162 · Buddy Biancalana 15 · Jim Pankovits 9
3BDenny Walling 79 · Ken Caminiti 61 · Chuck Jackson 16
SSCraig Reynolds 129 · Buddy Biancalana 38 · Dickie Thon 31
LFJose Cruz 97 · Billy Hatcher 51 · Terry Puhl 28
CFBilly Hatcher 94 · Gerald Young 67 · Chuck Jackson 12
RFKevin Bass 155 · Terry Puhl 9 · Billy Hatcher 6
SPNolan Ryan Jr. 6.0 · Mike Scott 5.3 · Danny Darwin 2.9 · Jim Deshaies 0.8 · Bob Knepper -0.2
BP★ Dave Smith 24 · Larry Andersen 0 · Dave Meads 0 · Rocky Childress 0 · Juan Agosto 0 · Aurelio Lopez 0 · Charlie Kerfeld 0 · Jeff Heathcock 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1987 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nolan Ryan Jr. 40 FA-elig 346.0 1.2 +0.5
Mike Scott 32 FA-elig 365.3 0.7 +0.8
Bill Doran 29 arb 1624.2 0.6 +0.6
Dave Smith 32 FA-elig 502.9 0.7 +0.1
Danny Darwin 31 FA-elig 352.9 0.7 +0.1
Kevin Bass 28 arb 1572.7 0.6 +0.2
Billy Hatcher 26 arb 1412.4 0.1 +0.6
Alan Ashby 35 FA-elig 1252.3 0.6 +0.1
Larry Andersen 34 FA-elig 671.3 0.3 +0.1
Glenn Davis 26 arb 1511.2 0.2 +0.1
Denny Walling 33 FA-elig 1101.2 0.6 -0.2
Gerald Young 22 pre-arb 710.8 0.1 +0.2
Jim Deshaies 27 arb 260.8 0.1 +0.1
Jose Cruz 39 FA-elig 1260.5 0.8 -0.6
Manny Hernandez 26 – 60.3 – –
Davey Lopes 42 FA-elig 470.1 0.6 -0.5
Dickie Thon 29 FA-elig 320.1 0.7 -0.6
Jeff Heathcock 27 arb 190.1 0.1 -0.0
Jim Pankovits 31 arb 500.1 0.1 -0.1
Mark Bailey 25 – 350.1 – –
Phil Garner↔ LAD 38 FA-elig 430.1 0.2 -0.2
Rob Mallicoat 22 – 40.0 – –
Rocky Childress 25 – 320.0 – –
Juan Agosto 29 FA-elig 270.0 0.1 -0.1
Craig Reynolds 34 FA-elig 135-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Tye Waller 30 – 11-0.0 – –
Paul Householder 28 – 14-0.0 – –
Ty Gainey 26 – 18-0.1 – –
Terry Puhl 30 FA-elig 90-0.1 0.9 -0.9
Ken Caminiti 24 pre-arb 63-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Chuck Jackson 24 – 35-0.1 – –
Bob Knepper 33 FA-elig 33-0.2 1.0 -1.0
Dale Berra 30 FA-elig 19-0.2 0.1 -0.1
Troy Afenir 23 – 10-0.2 – –
Ron Mathis 28 – 8-0.3 – –
Dave Meads 23 – 45-0.3 – –
Julio Solano 27 – 11-0.4 – –
Aurelio Lopez 38 FA-elig 26-0.4 0.1 -0.3
Charlie Kerfeld 23 pre-arb 21-0.4 0.1 -0.2
Robbie Wine Jr. 24 – 14-0.5 – –
Bert Pena 27 – 21-0.5 – –
Buddy Biancalana↔ KCR 27 – 18-0.6 – –
Ronn Reynolds 28 arb 38-0.9 0.1 -0.3

Key additions (new vs 1986)

PlayerfWAR
Gerald Young0.8
Jeff Heathcock0.1
Rob Mallicoat0.0
Rocky Childress0.0
Juan Agosto0.0
Tye Waller-0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 1986)

Player1986 fWAR
Tony Walker0.7
John Mizerock0.3
Dan Driessen0.1
Mike Madden0.1
Louie Meadows0.0
Matt Keough-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1987 payroll
$11.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 1987, 1987–1993. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1987198819891990199119921993
Nolan Ryan Jr.4021.000$1.2M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Bob Knepper3311.000$1.0M$1.0M$43kFREE AGENT
Terry Puhl3010.000$900k$950k$950k$800kFREE AGENT
Jose Cruz3917.000$755kFREE AGENT
Danny Darwin319.000$740k$760k$855k$1.2MFREE AGENT
Dave Smith327.000$700k$1.1M$1.1M$1.1MFREE AGENT
Mike Scott328.000$692k$667k$1.3M$2.0M$2.4MFREE AGENT
Dickie Thon298.000$675kFREE AGENT
Denny Walling3312.000$595k$445kFREE AGENT$300k
Alan Ashby3514.000$575k$450k$550kFREE AGENT
Davey Lopes4215.000$550kFREE AGENT
Craig Reynolds3412.000$417k$500k$600kFREE AGENT
Larry Andersen3412.000$300k$450k$475k$742kFREE AGENT
Phil Garner3814.000$171kFREE AGENT
Aurelio Lopez3813.000$150kFREE AGENT
Juan Agosto296.000$100k$158k$610k$850kFREE AGENT
Dale Berra3010.000$62kFREE AGENT
Paul Householder287.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc1987198819891990199119921993
Kevin Bass285.000$630kFREE AGENT
Bill Doran295.000$625kFREE AGENT
Glenn Davis263.000$215kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Deshaies273.000$110kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Hatcher263.000$110kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Pankovits313.000$100kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronn Reynolds285.000$80kFREE AGENT
Jeff Heathcock274.000$68kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Bailey253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Biancalana275.000—FREE AGENT
Julio Solano274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1987198819891990199119921993
Charlie Kerfeld232.000$110kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Caminiti240.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerald Young220.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Troy Afenir230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Childress25–—
Ty Gainey26–—
Manny Hernandez26–—
Chuck Jackson240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Mallicoat22–—
Ron Mathis28–—
Dave Meads23–—
Bert Pena27–—
Tye Waller30–—
Robbie Wine Jr.24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 1987; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.