SDP⇄HOU

SDPSDP Jack McKeon net +$0.8M net +0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Dan WaltersC·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Bill Wood net −$0.8M net -0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ed VosbergP·27y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.9± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.