RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Walt Jocketty

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.88× league · TAB -5.4
-5.4TAB — talent above budget19th/30
-16.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)30th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-7.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
41%dead money %19th/30
0.395win %29th/30
27.3roster fWAR22nd/30
-21surplus $M (value vs cost)15th/30
$107Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFBilly Hamilton 110GJason Bourgeois 35GRyan LaMarre 13G
LFMarlon Byrd 88GSkip Schumaker 40GIván De Jesús Jr. 18G
RFJay Bruce 150GBrennan Boesch 8GJason Bourgeois 6G
SSEugenio Suárez 96GZack Cozart 52GKristopher Negrón 10G
2BBrandon Phillips 141GIván De Jesús Jr. 20GSkip Schumaker 12G
3BTodd Frazier 155GIván De Jesús Jr. 13GKristopher Negrón 2G
1BJoey Votto 156GBrayan Peña 5GAdam Duvall 4G
STARTERSAnthony DeSclafani 3.2WARRaisel Iglesias 1.5WARJohn Lamb 0.5WARKeyvius Sampson 0.1WARJason Marquis -0.0WAR
CBrayan Peña 86GTucker Barnhart 73GRamón Cabrera 8G
DHDevin Mesoraco 4GSkip Schumaker 2GJay Bruce 2G
BULLPEN★ Aroldis Chapman 33svJ.J. Hoover 18hTony Cingrani 9hRyan Mattheus 8hJumbo Diaz 7hBurke Badenhop 7hManny Parra 6hPedro Villarreal 0h
CBrayan Peña 86 · Tucker Barnhart 73 · Ramón Cabrera 8
1BJoey Votto 156 · Brayan Peña 5 · Adam Duvall 4
2BBrandon Phillips 141 · Iván De Jesús Jr. 20 · Skip Schumaker 12
3BTodd Frazier 155 · Iván De Jesús Jr. 13 · Kristopher Negrón 2
SSEugenio Suárez 96 · Zack Cozart 52 · Kristopher Negrón 10
LFMarlon Byrd 88 · Skip Schumaker 40 · Iván De Jesús Jr. 18
CFBilly Hamilton 110 · Jason Bourgeois 35 · Ryan LaMarre 13
RFJay Bruce 150 · Brennan Boesch 8 · Jason Bourgeois 6
DHDevin Mesoraco 4 · Skip Schumaker 2 · Jay Bruce 2
SPAnthony DeSclafani 3.2 · Raisel Iglesias 1.5 · John Lamb 0.5 · Keyvius Sampson 0.1 · Jason Marquis -0.0
BP★ Aroldis Chapman 33 · J.J. Hoover 18 · Tony Cingrani 9 · Ryan Mattheus 8 · Jumbo Diaz 7 · Burke Badenhop 7 · Manny Parra 6 · Pedro Villarreal 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joey Votto 31 FA-elig 1587.3 14.0 +8.9
Todd Frazier 29 arb 1574.3 4.5 +9.1
Anthony DeSclafani 25 pre-arb 313.2 0.5 +9.7
Johnny Cueto↔ KCR 29 FA-elig 193.1 5.9 +3.8
Brandon Phillips 34 FA-elig 1482.5 12.0 -4.1
Aroldis Chapman 27 arb 652.5 8.1 -0.2
Mike Leake↔ SFG 27 arb 251.7 6.6 -1.2
Raisel Iglesias 25 pre-arb 181.5 1.7 +3.0
Zack Cozart 29 arb 531.3 2.4 +1.6
Billy Hamilton 24 pre-arb 1141.2 0.5 +3.3
Eugenio Suárez 23 pre-arb 970.9 0.3 +2.4
Marlon Byrd↔ SFG 37 FA-elig 960.9 5.7 -3.0
Tucker Barnhart 24 pre-arb 810.7 0.5 +1.8
John Lamb 24 – 100.5 0.1 +1.5
Manny Parra 32 FA-elig 400.4 3.5 -2.2
Adam Duvall 26 pre-arb 270.4 0.1 +1.1
Ryan Mattheus↔ ANA 31 arb 570.4 0.4 +0.7
Jumbo Diaz 31 pre-arb 610.3 0.5 +0.6
Burke Badenhop 32 FA-elig 680.3 1.0 -0.1
Iván De Jesús Jr. 28 – 760.2 – –
Ramón Cabrera 25 pre-arb 130.2 0.1 +0.6
Jay Bruce 28 FA-elig 1570.2 12.0 -11.3
Keyvius Sampson 24 pre-arb 130.1 0.2 +0.2
Chris Dominguez 28 pre-arb 140.1 0.1 +0.2
Donovan Hand 29 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Tyler Holt↔ CLE 26 – 50.0 0.0 +0.1
Sam LeCure 31 arb 190.0 1.9 -1.8
Jon Moscot 23 pre-arb 30.0 0.3 -0.3
Kyle Waldrop 23 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Pedro Villarreal 27 pre-arb 29-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Jason Marquis 36 FA-elig 10-0.0 1.5 -1.6
J.J. Hoover 27 arb 67-0.0 0.5 -0.7
Brandon Finnegan↔ KCR 22 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Michael Lorenzen 23 – 33-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Tony Cingrani 25 arb 35-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Josh A. Smith 27 – 10-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Kevin Gregg 37 FA-elig 11-0.2 1.5 -2.0
Devin Mesoraco 27 arb 23-0.2 2.5 -3.2
Homer Bailey 29 FA-elig 2-0.3 10.0 -10.8
Carlos Contreras 24 pre-arb 22-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Ryan LaMarre 26 – 21-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Nate Adcock 27 – 13-0.3 – –
Collin Balester 29 pre-arb 15-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Jason Bourgeois 33 FA-elig 68-0.4 0.5 -1.7
Brayan Peña 33 FA-elig 108-0.4 1.4 -2.7
Dylan Axelrod 29 pre-arb 6-0.6 0.1 -1.9
Kristopher Negrón 29 arb 43-0.6 0.5 -2.4
David Holmberg 23 pre-arb 6-0.8 0.1 -2.6
Skip Schumaker 35 FA-elig 131-0.8 2.5 -5.1
Brennan Boesch 30 arb 51-1.1 1.2 -4.6

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Anthony DeSclafani3.2
Raisel Iglesias1.5
Eugenio Suárez0.9
Marlon Byrd0.9
John Lamb0.5
Adam Duvall0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Mat Latos1.7
Alfredo Simon1.3
Ramon Santiago0.7
Chris Heisey0.7
Jonathan Broxton0.4
Daniel Corcino0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$107.2M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Joey Votto317.027$14.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips3410.022$12.0MFREE AGENT
Jay Bruce286.125$12.0MFREE AGENT
Homer Bailey296.017$10.0MFREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto297.000$5.9MFREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd3710.115$5.7MFREE AGENT
Manny Parra327.063$3.5MFREE AGENT
Skip Schumaker358.051$2.5MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gregg3712.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Marquis3615.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Brayan Peña338.081$1.4MFREE AGENT
Burke Badenhop326.116$1.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Aroldis Chapman274.034$8.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Leake275.000$6.6MFREE AGENT
Todd Frazier293.071$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Mesoraco273.028$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Cozart293.084$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam LeCure314.072$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brennan Boesch303.102$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kristopher Negrón293.000$512kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Mattheus313.123$406kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván De Jesús Jr.284.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Adcock274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Raisel Iglesias250.000$1.7MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Hamilton241.028$545kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Hoover272.102$535kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cingrani251.074$526kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bourgeois332.121$522kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jumbo Diaz310.101$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony DeSclafani250.062$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucker Barnhart240.075$471kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Lorenzen230.000$392kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Villarreal271.034$352kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Moscot230.122$338kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez230.117$322kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Contreras240.089$219kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keyvius Sampson240.067$186kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Lamb242.095$144kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan LaMarre260.000$128kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Balester292.016$116kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh A. Smith27–$114k
Adam Duvall260.061$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Cabrera250.034$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Holmberg230.032$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Axelrod291.143$83kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Dominguez280.028$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Finnegan220.028$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Holt261.075$16kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Waldrop230.005$11kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donovan Hand29–$8k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.