NYY⇄CIN

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$8.0M net +8.1

received +$22.4M+$22.4M ± $11M expected surplus · −$12.8M realized received 1.7 ± 1 expected · 7.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2016 odds 10% → 14% (+4.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aroldis ChapmanP·28y·L/L

+$22.6M+$22.6M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized 7.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.67/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Walt Jocketty net +$8.0M net -8.1

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $38M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 5.3 ± 5 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric Jagielo3B·24y·L/R

+$7.7M+$7.7M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#26 overall draft pick → 0.46/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Rookie DavisP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#449 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tony Renda2B/OF·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#80 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Caleb CothamP·28y·R/R

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#165 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.