RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Walt Jocketty

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.97× league · TAB -6.4
-6.4TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-5.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-6.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
39%dead money %19th/30
0.469win %21st/30
27.5roster fWAR24th/30
-34surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$110Mpayroll $M12th/30

Roster

CFBilly Hamilton 144GChris Heisey 16GSkip Schumaker 8G
LFRyan Ludwick 92GChris Heisey 53GSkip Schumaker 33G
RFJay Bruce 131GChris Heisey 14GSkip Schumaker 13G
SSZack Cozart 147GRamon Santiago 20GJake Elmore 3G
2BBrandon Phillips 121GRamon Santiago 20GSkip Schumaker 19G
3BTodd Frazier 124GRamon Santiago 28GKristopher Negrón 25G
1BJoey Votto 61GBrayan Peña 53GTodd Frazier 43G
STARTERSJohnny Cueto 4.3WARMike Leake 2.8WARMat Latos 1.7WARHomer Bailey 1.7WARAlfredo Simon 1.3WAR
CDevin Mesoraco 109GBrayan Peña 46GTucker Barnhart 20G
DHRyan Ludwick 5GBilly Hamilton 1GJack Hannahan 1G
BULLPEN★ Aroldis Chapman 36svSam LeCure 17hManny Parra 16hJumbo Diaz 8hLogan Ondrusek 4hJ.J. Hoover 1hSean Marshall 1hCarlos Contreras 0h
CDevin Mesoraco 109 · Brayan Peña 46 · Tucker Barnhart 20
1BJoey Votto 61 · Brayan Peña 53 · Todd Frazier 43
2BBrandon Phillips 121 · Ramon Santiago 20 · Skip Schumaker 19
3BTodd Frazier 124 · Ramon Santiago 28 · Kristopher Negrón 25
SSZack Cozart 147 · Ramon Santiago 20 · Jake Elmore 3
LFRyan Ludwick 92 · Chris Heisey 53 · Skip Schumaker 33
CFBilly Hamilton 144 · Chris Heisey 16 · Skip Schumaker 8
RFJay Bruce 131 · Chris Heisey 14 · Skip Schumaker 13
DHRyan Ludwick 5 · Billy Hamilton 1 · Jack Hannahan 1
SPJohnny Cueto 4.3 · Mike Leake 2.8 · Mat Latos 1.7 · Homer Bailey 1.7 · Alfredo Simon 1.3
BP★ Aroldis Chapman 36 · Sam LeCure 17 · Manny Parra 16 · Jumbo Diaz 8 · Logan Ondrusek 4 · J.J. Hoover 1 · Sean Marshall 1 · Carlos Contreras 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Todd Frazier 28 arb 1574.5 0.6 +12.7
Johnny Cueto 28 FA-elig 344.3 10.0 +2.7
Devin Mesoraco 26 arb 1143.9 0.5 +11.0
Mike Leake 26 arb 402.8 5.9 +2.4
Aroldis Chapman 26 arb 542.8 5.0 +3.1
Billy Hamilton 23 pre-arb 1522.7 0.5 +7.4
Homer Bailey 28 FA-elig 231.7 9.0 -3.9
Kristopher Negrón 28 – 491.7 – –
Mat Latos 26 arb 161.7 7.2 -2.4
Brandon Phillips 33 FA-elig 1211.4 11.0 -7.0
Zack Cozart 28 arb 1471.3 0.6 +3.3
Alfredo Simon 33 FA-elig 321.3 1.5 +2.2
Joey Votto 30 FA-elig 620.8 12.0 -9.7
Ramon Santiago 34 FA-elig 750.7 1.1 +1.0
Chris Heisey 29 arb 1190.7 1.8 +0.2
Jonathan Broxton↔ MIL 30 FA-elig 510.4 5.8 -4.6
Jumbo Diaz 30 – 360.3 0.5 +0.5
Daniel Corcino 23 pre-arb 50.3 0.1 +0.8
Pedro Villarreal 26 pre-arb 120.0 0.1 +0.0
Jeff Francis↔ NYY 33 – 10.0 – –
Curtis Partch 27 – 6-0.0 – –
Logan Ondrusek 29 arb 40-0.0 1.4 -1.4
Tucker Barnhart 23 – 21-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Trevor Bell 27 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Brayan Peña 32 FA-elig 115-0.1 0.9 -1.1
Jason Bourgeois 32 pre-arb 18-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Manny Parra 31 FA-elig 53-0.1 2.0 -2.2
Dylan Axelrod 28 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Jake Elmore 27 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Sean Marshall 31 FA-elig 15-0.2 5.5 -5.9
Yorman Rodriguez 21 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.1 -0.5
Carlos Contreras 23 – 17-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Sam LeCure 30 arb 62-0.2 1.2 -1.7
Nick Christiani 26 pre-arb 10-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Ryan Dennick 27 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Tony Cingrani 24 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Jack Hannahan 34 FA-elig 26-0.2 1.0 -1.7
Donald Lutz 25 pre-arb 28-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Roger Bernadina↔ LAD 30 – 44-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Ryan Ludwick 35 FA-elig 112-0.4 8.5 -9.6
J.J. Hoover 26 pre-arb 54-0.4 0.5 -1.6
Jay Bruce 27 FA-elig 137-0.4 10.0 -11.2
Neftali Soto 25 pre-arb 21-0.5 0.5 -2.0
Skip Schumaker 34 FA-elig 83-0.8 2.0 -4.3
David Holmberg 22 pre-arb 7-0.9 0.1 -2.7

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Kristopher Negrón1.7
Ramon Santiago0.7
Jumbo Diaz0.3
Daniel Corcino0.3
Jeff Francis0.0
Tucker Barnhart-0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Shin-Soo Choo6.4
Bronson Arroyo0.6
Ryan Hanigan0.4
Corky Miller0.3
Zach Duke0.2
Derrick Robinson0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$109.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Joey Votto306.027$12.0M$14.0M$20.0M$22.0M$25.0M$25.0M$25.0M
Brandon Phillips339.022$11.0M$12.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto286.000$10.0M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Ryan Ludwick358.109$8.5MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Broxton308.020$5.8MFREE AGENT
Sean Marshall317.088$5.5MFREE AGENT
Manny Parra316.063$2.0M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Skip Schumaker347.051$2.0M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Ramon Santiago349.095$1.1MFREE AGENT
Brayan Peña328.081$875k$1.4MFREE AGENT
Jeff Francis338.157—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Jay Bruce275.125$10.0MFREE AGENT
Homer Bailey285.017$9.0MFREE AGENT
Mat Latos264.079$7.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Leake264.000$5.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Aroldis Chapman263.034$5.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heisey293.157$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Simon334.142$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Ondrusek293.125$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam LeCure303.072$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Hannahan345.065$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jumbo Diaz303.129$500kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Bernadina304.146$404kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Todd Frazier282.071$600kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Cozart282.084$600kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Mesoraco262.028$525kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Hoover261.102$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cingrani240.163$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Christiani260.039$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neftali Soto250.100$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Hamilton230.028$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Bell271.124$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Contreras232.000$238kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donald Lutz250.134$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucker Barnhart230.000$197kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Elmore271.054$136kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Villarreal261.034$104kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Corcino230.034$90kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Axelrod281.143$90kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Holmberg220.002$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bourgeois322.094$74kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yorman Rodriguez210.032$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Dennick270.027$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curtis Partch271.130—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kristopher Negrón282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.