SFG⇄CIN

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$7.2M net +0.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $4M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.0 ± 0 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2015 odds 29% → 32% (+3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marlon ByrdOF·37y·R/R

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $4M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.73/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Walt Jocketty net +$7.2M net -0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2015 odds 4% → 4% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Stephen Johnson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.