RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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GM: Jim Hendry

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.22× league · TAB -12.6
-12.6TAB — talent above budget30th/30
-18.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)30th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-7.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag25th/30
37%dead money %20th/30
0.407win %28th/30
24.1roster fWAR26th/30
-49surplus $M (value vs cost)28th/30
$93Mpayroll $M9th/30

Roster

CFJuan Pierre 162GBuck Coats 3GFreddie Bynum Jr. 2G
LFMatt Murton 133GÁngel Pagán 39GFreddie Bynum Jr. 13G
RFJacque Jones 143GÁngel Pagán 21GFreddie Bynum Jr. 8G
SSRonny Cedeno 134GCésar Izturis 23GRyan Theriot 2G
2BRyan Theriot 39GTony Womack 21GRonny Cedeno 15G
3BAramis Ramirez 156GScott Moore 5GJohn Mabry 2G
1BJohn Mabry 51GDerrek Lee 47GHenry Blanco 6G
STARTERSCarlos Zambrano 4.3WARRich Hill 1.3WARSean Marshall 0.3WARJuan Mateo 0.2WARAngel Guzman 0.1WAR
CMichael Barrett 102GHenry Blanco 69GGeovany Soto 7G
DHTodd Walker 5GJohn Mabry 2GDerrek Lee 1G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Dempster 24svBob Howry 21hScott Eyre 18hWill Ohman 9hMichael Wuertz 6hDavid Aardsma 5hRoberto Novoa 4hJae Kuk Ryu 0h
CMichael Barrett 102 · Henry Blanco 69 · Geovany Soto 7
1BJohn Mabry 51 · Derrek Lee 47 · Henry Blanco 6
2BRyan Theriot 39 · Tony Womack 21 · Ronny Cedeno 15
3BAramis Ramirez 156 · Scott Moore 5 · John Mabry 2
SSRonny Cedeno 134 · César Izturis 23 · Ryan Theriot 2
LFMatt Murton 133 · Ángel Pagán 39 · Freddie Bynum Jr. 13
CFJuan Pierre 162 · Buck Coats 3 · Freddie Bynum Jr. 2
RFJacque Jones 143 · Ángel Pagán 21 · Freddie Bynum Jr. 8
DHTodd Walker 5 · John Mabry 2 · Derrek Lee 1
SPCarlos Zambrano 4.3 · Rich Hill 1.3 · Sean Marshall 0.3 · Juan Mateo 0.2 · Angel Guzman 0.1
BP★ Ryan Dempster 24 · Bob Howry 21 · Scott Eyre 18 · Will Ohman 9 · Michael Wuertz 6 · David Aardsma 5 · Roberto Novoa 4 · Jae Kuk Ryu 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carlos Zambrano 25 arb 374.3 6.5 +2.0
Aramis Ramirez 28 FA-elig 1573.7 10.8 -3.3
Juan Pierre 28 FA-elig 1623.1 5.8 +0.4
Matt Murton 24 pre-arb 1442.8 0.3 +5.3
Greg Maddux↔ LAD 40 FA-elig 222.7 5.8 -0.4
Michael Barrett 29 FA-elig 1072.3 4.3 +0.3
Ryan Theriot 26 – 531.6 – –
Bob Howry 32 FA-elig 841.5 3.0 +0.1
Jacque Jones 31 – 1491.4 – –
Rich Hill 26 – 171.3 0.3 +2.2
Ryan Dempster 29 FA-elig 740.9 4.3 -2.5
Phil Nevin↔ MIN 35 FA-elig 670.7 5.4 -3.9
Henry Blanco 34 FA-elig 740.7 1.5 -0.0
Derrek Lee 30 FA-elig 500.7 9.4 -8.0
Will Ohman 28 FA-elig 780.7 0.6 +0.8
Michael Wuertz 27 pre-arb 410.4 0.4 +0.5
Scott Williamson↔ SDP 30 FA-elig 310.3 1.5 -0.9
Sean Marshall 23 pre-arb 240.3 0.3 +0.3
Tony Womack↔ CIN 36 FA-elig 190.3 1.4 -0.8
Ángel Pagán 24 pre-arb 770.3 0.3 +0.3
Juan Mateo 23 – 120.2 – –
Ryan O'Malley 26 – 20.2 – –
Scott Eyre 34 FA-elig 740.1 3.0 -2.7
Angel Guzman 24 – 150.1 – –
Kerry Wood 29 FA-elig 40.1 12.0 -11.8
Les Walrond 29 – 100.1 – –
Freddie Bynum Jr. 26 pre-arb 710.0 0.3 -0.3
Scott Moore 22 – 16-0.0 – –
Jose Reyes 23 – 4-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Michael Restovich 27 – 10-0.1 – –
Buck Coats 24 – 18-0.1 – –
Geovany Soto 23 – 11-0.1 – –
Wade Miller 29 FA-elig 5-0.1 1.0 -1.2
Carlos Marmol 23 – 21-0.1 – –
Todd Walker↔ SDP 33 FA-elig 94-0.1 1.7 -2.0
David Aardsma 24 – 45-0.2 – –
Jerome Williams 24 arb 5-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Neifi Perez↔ DET 33 FA-elig 87-0.2 2.0 -2.5
Mark Prior 25 arb 9-0.3 3.6 -4.3
Jae Kuk Ryu 23 – 10-0.4 – –
Jerry Hairston Jr.↔ TEX 30 FA-elig 38-0.5 0.9 -1.8
Cesar Izturis↔ LAD 26 arb 22-0.5 1.3 -2.4
Roberto Novoa 26 – 66-0.6 – –
John Mabry 35 FA-elig 107-0.6 1.1 -2.3
Glendon Rusch 31 FA-elig 25-0.9 2.8 -4.5
Ronny Cedeno 23 pre-arb 151-1.8 0.3 -4.0

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Juan Pierre3.1
Bob Howry1.5
Jacque Jones1.4
Phil Nevin0.7
Sean Marshall0.3
Tony Womack0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Jeromy Burnitz1.5
Nomar Garciaparra0.3
Mike Fontenot0.1
John Koronka0.1
Sergio Mitre0.1
Mike Remlinger0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$92.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Kerry Wood298.000$12.0M$1.8M$4.2MFREE AGENT$1.5M$3.0M
Aramis Ramirez288.000$10.8M$9.0M$15.0M$16.6M$16.8M$14.6MFREE AGENT
Derrek Lee309.000$9.4M$13.2M$13.2M$13.2M$9.8MFREE AGENT
Greg Maddux4020.000$5.8MFREE AGENT
Juan Pierre286.000$5.8MFREE AGENT
Phil Nevin3511.000$5.4MFREE AGENT
Michael Barrett298.000$4.3M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster298.000$4.3M$5.3M$7.3M$9.0M$13.5M$13.5M$8.0M
Scott Eyre349.000$3.0M$3.8M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Bob Howry328.000$3.0M$4.5M$4.5MFREE AGENT$1.3M
Glendon Rusch319.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Neifi Perez3310.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Todd Walker3310.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Henry Blanco349.000$1.5M$1.8M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Williamson307.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Tony Womack3613.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
John Mabry3512.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Wade Miller297.000$1.0M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jerry Hairston Jr.308.000$865kFREE AGENT
Will Ohman286.000$610k$900kFREE AGENT
Jacque Jones317.000—$5.6MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Carlos Zambrano255.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Prior254.000$3.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Izturis265.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jerome Williams243.000$380kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Jose Reyes23–$402k
Michael Wuertz272.000$355kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Murton241.000$337kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Cedeno231.000$336kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddie Bynum Jr.261.000$328kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ángel Pagán240.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Marshall230.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Hill261.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Restovich27–—
Les Walrond29–—
Angel Guzman240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Novoa26–—
David Aardsma242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geovany Soto231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Theriot261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Moore220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan O'Malley26–—
Buck Coats240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Marmol230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Mateo23–—
Jae Kuk Ryu230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.