SDP⇄CHC

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$0.0M net +1.1

received +$2.4M+$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2006 odds 50% → 56% (+6.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd Walker2B·33y·L/R

+$2.8M+$1.8M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.27/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$0.0M net -1.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2006 odds 2% → 2% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José CedaP·19y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.