LAD⇄CHC

LADLAD Ned Colletti net −$4.0M net +2.7

received −$19.2M−$19.2M ± $0M expected surplus · −$23.2M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 1.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2006 odds 33% → 44% (+11.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Greg MadduxP·40y·R/R

−$19.0M−$19.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$23.2M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.9 seasons

Talent

2.79/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$4.0M net -2.7

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $18M expected surplus · −$19.2M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2006 odds 3% → 2% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

César IzturisSS·26y·B/R

+$3.5M+$3.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$19.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.