TEX⇄CHC⇄OAK

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$8.0M net +1.7

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 2.7 ± 4 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2006 odds 7% → 9% (+3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John KoronkaP·25y·L/L

+$7.8M+$7.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

#350 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

John RheineckerP·27y·L/L

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

#37 overall draft pick → 0.26/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$5.6M net -0.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2006 odds 2% → 2% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Freddie BynumSS/OF·26y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#60 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$2.4M net -0.9

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $31M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2006 odds 18% → 14% (-3.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan DomínguezP·26y·R/R

+$7.3M+$7.3M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.