CHC⇄SDP

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$4.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Fabian Jimenez Angulo

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Joel Santo

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$4.0M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$2.4M ± $9M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Scott WilliamsonP·30y·R/R

−$0.5M−$2.3M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.