CHW⇄CHC

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$6.4M net +0.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2007 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos Vasquez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

David AardsmaP·25y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#22 overall draft pick → 0.41/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$6.4M net -0.5

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2007 odds 36% → 35% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Neal CottsP·27y·L/L

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.