RRosternomics

Cubs CHC

GM: Andy MacPhail

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.13× league · TAB +7.0
+7.0TAB — talent above budget8th/30
+4.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-3.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
13%dead money %4th/30
0.543win %9th/30
42.8roster fWAR8th/30
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$70Mpayroll $M12th/30

Roster

CFMichael Tucker 76GCorey Patterson 45GDamon Buford 33G
LFRondell White 90GDelino DeShields 79GMichael Tucker 75G
RFSammy Sosa 160GMichael Tucker 25GTodd Dunwoody 7G
SSRicky Gutierrez 144GAugie Ojeda 31GJason Smith 1G
2BEric Young Sr. 147GDelino DeShields 16GAugie Ojeda 10G
3BRon Coomer 76GBill Mueller 64GAugie Ojeda 35G
1BFred McGriff 123GMatt Stairs 89GRon Coomer 36G
STARTERSJon Lieber 4.4WARKerry Wood 4.0WARKevin Tapani 3.1WARJason Bere 3.1WARJulian Tavarez 2.1WAR
CJoe Girardi 71GTodd Hundley 70GRobert Machado 47G
DHRoosevelt Brown 3GMatt Stairs 2GRon Coomer 1G
BULLPEN Tom Gordon 27svJeff Fassero 25hKyle Farnsworth 24hDavid Weathers 15hFélix Heredia 8hCourtney Duncan 7hTodd Van Poppel 5hManny Aybar 2h
CJoe Girardi 71 · Todd Hundley 70 · Robert Machado 47
1BFred McGriff 123 · Matt Stairs 89 · Ron Coomer 36
2BEric Young Sr. 147 · Delino DeShields 16 · Augie Ojeda 10
3BRon Coomer 76 · Bill Mueller 64 · Augie Ojeda 35
SSRicky Gutierrez 144 · Augie Ojeda 31 · Jason Smith 1
LFRondell White 90 · Delino DeShields 79 · Michael Tucker 75
CFMichael Tucker 76 · Corey Patterson 45 · Damon Buford 33
RFSammy Sosa 160 · Michael Tucker 25 · Todd Dunwoody 7
DHRoosevelt Brown 3 · Matt Stairs 2 · Ron Coomer 1
SPJon Lieber 4.4 · Kerry Wood 4.0 · Kevin Tapani 3.1 · Jason Bere 3.1 · Julian Tavarez 2.1
BP Tom Gordon 27 · Jeff Fassero 25 · Kyle Farnsworth 24 · David Weathers 15 · Félix Heredia 8 · Courtney Duncan 7 · Todd Van Poppel 5 · Manny Aybar 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2001 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Sammy Sosa 32 FA-elig 1609.9 12.5 +3.4
Jon Lieber 31 FA-elig 354.4 5.1 +2.1
Kerry Wood 24 arb 294.0 1.9 +4.5
Kevin Tapani 37 FA-elig 293.1 6.5 -1.4
Jason Bere 30 FA-elig 323.1 2.2 +2.8
Julian Tavarez 28 FA-elig 342.1 2.3 +1.1
Kyle Farnsworth 25 pre-arb 762.0 0.2 +2.9
Ricky Gutierrez 31 FA-elig 1471.8 3.4 -0.5
Jeff Fassero 38 FA-elig 821.7 2.4 +0.4
Bill Mueller 30 arb 701.7 2.8 -0.0
Rondell White 29 FA-elig 951.7 4.0 -1.3
Tom Gordon 33 FA-elig 471.5 2.0 +0.4
Matt Stairs 33 FA-elig 1281.4 3.2 -1.0
Eric Young Sr. 34 FA-elig 1491.3 4.5 -2.4
Fred McGriff↔ TBR 37 FA-elig 491.2 2.2 -0.3
Michael Tucker↔ CIN 30 FA-elig 631.0 0.8 +0.9
Juan Cruz 22 110.8
Todd Van Poppel 29 FA-elig 590.8 0.8 +0.4
Joe Girardi 36 FA-elig 780.8 2.0 -0.7
Delino DeShields↔ BAL 32 FA-elig 680.6 2.3 -1.4
Roosevelt Brown 25 pre-arb 390.4 0.2 +0.3
Gary Matthews Jr.↔ PIT 26 pre-arb 1060.3 0.2 +0.3
Courtney Duncan 26 pre-arb 360.3 0.2 +0.2
David Weathers↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 280.2 0.4 -0.1
Miguel Cairo↔ STL 27 660.2
Chad Meyers 25 180.1
Todd Dunwoody 26 330.0
Mike Fyhrie↔ OAK 31 arb 15-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Jason Smith 23 2-0.0
Will Ohman 23 11-0.0
Robert Machado 28 52-0.1
Scott Chiasson 23 6-0.1
Ron Coomer 34 FA-elig 111-0.1 1.1 -1.3
Joe Borowski 30 1-0.1
Corey Patterson 21 59-0.2
Ron Mahay 30 17-0.2
Manny Aybar 29 arb 17-0.2 0.7 -1.0
Julio Zuleta 26 pre-arb 49-0.3 0.2 -0.6
Felix Heredia 26 arb 48-0.3 1.1 -1.6
Carlos Zambrano 20 6-0.3
Augie Ojeda 26 pre-arb 78-0.4 0.2 -0.9
Damon Buford 31 FA-elig 35-0.5 1.1 -1.8
Todd Hundley 32 FA-elig 79-0.6 3.5 -4.5

Key additions (new vs 2000)

PlayerfWAR
Jason Bere3.1
Julian Tavarez2.1
Jeff Fassero1.7
Bill Mueller1.7
Tom Gordon1.5
Matt Stairs1.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2000)

Player2000 fWAR
Mark Grace3.0
Scott Downs0.8
Jeff Reed0.8
Tim Worrell0.7
Willie Greene0.5
Jamie Arnold0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2001 payroll
$70.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2001, 2001–2007. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2001200220032004200520062007
Sammy Sosa3212.000$12.5M$15.0M$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Tapani3712.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Jon Lieber317.000$5.1M$5.8MFREE AGENT
Eric Young Sr.349.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Rondell White298.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Todd Hundley3211.000$3.5M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Ricky Gutierrez318.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Matt Stairs339.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Jeff Fassero3810.000$2.4M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Delino DeShields3211.000$2.3M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Julian Tavarez288.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Jason Bere308.000$2.2M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Fred McGriff3715.000$2.2M$7.2MFREE AGENT
Joe Girardi3612.000$2.0M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Tom Gordon3313.000$2.0M$1.6MFREE AGENT
Damon Buford318.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Ron Coomer346.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Todd Van Poppel2910.000$850kFREE AGENT
Michael Tucker306.000$761kFREE AGENT
David Weathers3110.000$420kFREE AGENT
Joe Borowski306.000$235k$410k$2.0M$1.7MFREE AGENT
Ron Mahay306.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2001200220032004200520062007
Bill Mueller305.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Kerry Wood243.000$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Heredia265.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Manny Aybar294.000$665kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Fyhrie315.000$200kFREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo275.000FREE AGENT
Todd Dunwoody264.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Machado285.000FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2001200220032004200520062007
Kyle Farnsworth252.000$245kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roosevelt Brown252.000$230kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Augie Ojeda261.000$212kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Courtney Duncan260.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Zuleta261.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Matthews Jr.262.000$157kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Meyers252.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Patterson211.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Ohman231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Chiasson23
Jason Smith230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Zambrano200.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Cruz220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2001; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3