RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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GM: Ben Cherington

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.28× league · TAB -9.2
-9.2TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-14.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-6.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag24th/30
36%dead money %17th/30
0.438win %25th/30
28.0roster fWAR22nd/30
-62surplus $M (value vs cost)26th/30
$144Mpayroll $M6th/30

Roster

CFJackie Bradley Jr. 113GMookie Betts 28GRusney Castillo 10G
LFYoenis Cespedes 125GDaniel Nava 38GAllen Craig 11G
RFAllen Craig 82GDaniel Nava 69GBrock Holt 35G
SSXander Bogaerts 99GJonathan Herrera 16GBrock Holt 12G
2BDustin Pedroia 135GMookie Betts 14GBrock Holt 11G
3BWill Middlebrooks 62GXander Bogaerts 44GBrock Holt 39G
1BMike Napoli 110GAllen Craig 41GKelly Johnson 32G
STARTERSClay Buchholz 1.4WARRubby De La Rosa 0.4WARBrandon Workman 0.2WARAllen Webster 0.2WARJoe Kelly 0.1WAR
CChristian Vázquez 54GDavid Ross 50GDan Butler 7G
DHDavid Ortiz 131GYoenis Cespedes 22GMike Napoli 7G
BULLPEN★ Koji Uehara 26svJunichi Tazawa 16hBurke Badenhop 13hTommy Layne 9hEdward Mujica 3hCraig Breslow 2hDrake Britton 1hAlex Wilson 0h
CChristian Vázquez 54 · David Ross 50 · Dan Butler 7
1BMike Napoli 110 · Allen Craig 41 · Kelly Johnson 32
2BDustin Pedroia 135 · Mookie Betts 14 · Brock Holt 11
3BWill Middlebrooks 62 · Xander Bogaerts 44 · Brock Holt 39
SSXander Bogaerts 99 · Jonathan Herrera 16 · Brock Holt 12
LFYoenis Cespedes 125 · Daniel Nava 38 · Allen Craig 11
CFJackie Bradley Jr. 113 · Mookie Betts 28 · Rusney Castillo 10
RFAllen Craig 82 · Daniel Nava 69 · Brock Holt 35
DHDavid Ortiz 131 · Yoenis Cespedes 22 · Mike Napoli 7
SPClay Buchholz 1.4 · Rubby De La Rosa 0.4 · Brandon Workman 0.2 · Allen Webster 0.2 · Joe Kelly 0.1
BP★ Koji Uehara 26 · Junichi Tazawa 16 · Burke Badenhop 13 · Tommy Layne 9 · Edward Mujica 3 · Craig Breslow 2 · Drake Britton 1 · Alex Wilson 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dustin Pedroia 30 FA-elig 1353.8 12.5 -1.4
Jon Lester↔ OAK 30 FA-elig 213.8 8.5 +2.4
Daniel Nava 31 arb 1132.3 0.6 +6.1
David Ortiz 38 FA-elig 1422.2 15.0 -8.5
Brock Holt 26 pre-arb 1062.2 0.4 +5.9
Christian Vázquez 23 – 552.1 0.2 +6.0
Mike Napoli 32 FA-elig 1192.1 16.0 -9.8
John Lackey↔ STL 35 FA-elig 212.0 10.3 -4.4
Mookie Betts 21 – 521.8 0.3 +5.0
Clay Buchholz 29 FA-elig 281.4 7.7 -3.7
Andrew Miller↔ BAL 29 FA-elig 501.3 1.3 +2.4
David Ross 37 FA-elig 501.1 3.1 +0.2
Koji Uehara 39 arb 641.1 5.0 -1.9
Yoenis Cespedes↔ OAK 28 pre-arb 510.9 3.5 -0.8
Junichi Tazawa 28 arb 710.9 1.3 +1.3
Rusney Castillo 26 pre-arb 100.9 0.9 +1.7
Burke Badenhop 31 FA-elig 700.7 2.1 -0.2
Jonny Gomes↔ OAK 33 FA-elig 780.5 3.5 -1.9
Rubby De La Rosa 25 – 190.4 0.3 +0.8
Garin Cecchini 23 pre-arb 110.3 0.0 +0.8
Stephen Drew↔ NYY 31 FA-elig 390.3 4.6 -3.9
Jemile Weeks↔ BAL 27 arb 140.3 0.4 +0.3
Brandon Workman 25 pre-arb 190.2 0.5 +0.1
Carlos Rivero 26 pre-arb 40.2 0.1 +0.5
Steven Wright 29 pre-arb 60.2 0.5 +0.1
Shane Victorino 33 FA-elig 300.2 13.0 -12.4
Jackie Bradley Jr. 24 pre-arb 1270.2 0.5 +0.1
Allen Webster 24 pre-arb 110.2 0.2 +0.3
Edward Mujica 30 FA-elig 640.2 4.8 -4.3
Drake Britton 25 pre-arb 70.2 0.5 -0.1
Tommy Layne 29 pre-arb 300.1 0.2 +0.2
Joe Kelly↔ STL 26 pre-arb 100.1 0.3 +0.0
Jake Peavy↔ SFG 33 FA-elig 200.1 9.1 -8.8
Xander Bogaerts 21 pre-arb 1440.1 0.5 -0.2
Jonathan Herrera 29 FA-elig 420.0 1.3 -1.2
Edwin Escobar 22 – 20.0 0.0 +0.0
Chris Capuano↔ NYY 35 FA-elig 280.0 1.6 -1.5
Matt Barnes 24 – 50.0 – –
Corey Brown 28 – 30.0 – –
Bryce Brentz 25 – 90.0 0.0 -0.0
Alex Wilson 27 pre-arb 18-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Alex Hassan 26 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Heath Hembree 25 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Dan Butler 27 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Ryan Roberts 33 – 8-0.2 – –
Ryan Lavarnway 26 arb 9-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Mike Carp↔ TEX 28 arb 42-0.3 1.0 -1.7
Kelly Johnson↔ BAL 32 FA-elig 10-0.3 0.3 -1.1
Félix Doubront↔ CHC 26 arb 17-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Grady Sizemore↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 52-0.3 0.4 -1.3
A.J. Pierzynski↔ STL 37 FA-elig 72-0.8 5.8 -8.1
Anthony Ranaudo 24 pre-arb 7-0.8 0.1 -2.5
Will Middlebrooks 25 pre-arb 63-0.9 0.5 -3.1
Craig Breslow 33 FA-elig 60-0.9 3.8 -6.5
Allen Craig↔ STL 29 arb 29-1.1 0.6 -3.7

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Christian Vázquez2.1
Mookie Betts1.8
Yoenis Cespedes0.9
Rusney Castillo0.9
Burke Badenhop0.7
Garin Cecchini0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Jacoby Ellsbury4.6
Jarrod Saltalamacchia2.8
Jose Iglesias1.8
Quintin Berry0.4
Brayan Villarreal0.0
Pedro Beato-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$144.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Mike Napoli327.151$16.0M$11.8MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3815.048$15.0M$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Shane Victorino338.092$13.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia3014.041$12.5M$12.5M$13.0M$15.0M$16.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
John Lackey3511.095$10.3MFREE AGENT
Jake Peavy3311.101$9.1MFREE AGENT
Jon Lester307.075$8.5MFREE AGENT
A.J. Pierzynski3713.100$5.8MFREE AGENT
Edward Mujica306.115$4.8M$3.7MFREE AGENT
Stephen Drew317.079$4.6MFREE AGENT
Craig Breslow336.088$3.8M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes338.097$3.5MFREE AGENT
David Ross3713.001$3.1MFREE AGENT
Chris Capuano359.001$1.6MFREE AGENT
Grady Sizemore319.045$371kFREE AGENT
Kelly Johnson328.127$283kFREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez2312.031$224kFREE AGENT$513k$561k$1.4M$2.9M$4.2M

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Clay Buchholz295.059$7.7MFREE AGENT
Koji Uehara395.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Burke Badenhop315.116$2.1MFREE AGENT
Andrew Miller295.062$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Herrera294.001$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa283.086$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Carp283.010$997kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allen Craig293.077$633kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rubby De La Rosa253.000$301kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Roberts334.150—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Yoenis Cespedes282.000$3.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rusney Castillo260.000$871kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Nava312.066$556kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Middlebrooks251.121$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Workman250.083$518kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xander Bogaerts210.042$517kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Lavarnway261.040$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drake Britton250.103$503kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackie Bradley Jr.241.000$502kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Wright290.033$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Doubront262.120$474kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jemile Weeks271.142$424kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Holt260.080$388kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Kelly261.060$308kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mookie Betts210.000$254kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allen Webster240.044$178kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Layne290.100$164kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Wilson270.154$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Butler271.045$123kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Rivero260.035$96kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Ranaudo240.052$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heath Hembree250.027$52kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garin Cecchini230.019$41kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Escobar220.000$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Brentz250.000$30kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Hassan26–$30k
Corey Brown281.067—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Barnes240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.