BOS⇄DET

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net +$49.6M net +7.3

received +$19.2M+$19.2M ± $11M expected surplus · +$95.2M realized received 2.0 ± 1 expected · 13.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2015 odds 10% → 6% (-4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rick PorcelloP·26y·R/R

+$19.0M+$19.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$95.2M 2.0± 1 exp WARrealized 13.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.00/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$49.6M net -7.3

received +$52.0M+$52.0M ± $40M expected surplus · +$45.6M realized received 8.0 ± 5 expected · 5.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2015 odds 3% → 5% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yoenis CéspedesOF·29y·R/R

+$50.6M+$50.6M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$36.8M 6.2± 4 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

2.11/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Gabe SpeierP·20y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#563 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Alex WilsonP·28y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

#77 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.