BOS⇄BAL

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net +$152.8M net +13.3

received +$16.0M+$16.0M ± $19M expected surplus · +$156.0M realized received 2.6 ± 2 expected · 14.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2014 odds 5% → 4% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eduardo RodríguezP·21y·L/L

+$16.2M+$16.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$156.0M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized 14.3

Prior

Composite #65.0 prospect (Baseball America #65 (2014)) → 0.48/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$152.8M net -13.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2014 odds 38% → 43% (+5.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrew MillerP·29y·L/L

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.47/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.