RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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GM: Dave Dombrowski

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.41× league · TAB -8.7
-8.7TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-8.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars12th/30
-8.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
54%dead money %24th/30
0.481win %19th/30
29.8roster fWAR17th/30
-77surplus $M (value vs cost)29th/30
$171Mpayroll $M3rd/30

Roster

CFMookie Betts 133GJackie Bradley Jr. 27GRusney Castillo 6G
LFHanley Ramirez 92GCarlos Peguero 25GRusney Castillo 24G
RFRusney Castillo 48GAlejandro De Aza 37GJackie Bradley Jr. 32G
SSXander Bogaerts 156GBrock Holt 11GDeven Marrero 6G
2BDustin Pedroia 92GBrock Holt 58GJosh Rutledge 30G
3BPablo Sandoval 123GBrock Holt 33GDeven Marrero 13G
1BTravis Shaw 55GDavid Ortiz 9GBrock Holt 8G
STARTERSClay Buchholz 3.2WARWade Miley 2.7WAREduardo Rodriguez 1.7WARRick Porcello 1.7WARJoe Kelly 1.2WAR
CBlake Swihart 83GRyan Hanigan 53GSandy León 37G
DHDavid Ortiz 134GHanley Ramirez 11GAllen Craig 9G
BULLPEN★ Koji Uehara 25svJunichi Tazawa 16hAlexi Ogando 12hRobbie Ross Jr. 12hTommy Layne 9hJean Machi 4hMatt Barnes 3hCraig Breslow 1h
CBlake Swihart 83 · Ryan Hanigan 53 · Sandy León 37
1BTravis Shaw 55 · David Ortiz 9 · Brock Holt 8
2BDustin Pedroia 92 · Brock Holt 58 · Josh Rutledge 30
3BPablo Sandoval 123 · Brock Holt 33 · Deven Marrero 13
SSXander Bogaerts 156 · Brock Holt 11 · Deven Marrero 6
LFHanley Ramirez 92 · Carlos Peguero 25 · Rusney Castillo 24
CFMookie Betts 133 · Jackie Bradley Jr. 27 · Rusney Castillo 6
RFRusney Castillo 48 · Alejandro De Aza 37 · Jackie Bradley Jr. 32
DHDavid Ortiz 134 · Hanley Ramirez 11 · Allen Craig 9
SPClay Buchholz 3.2 · Wade Miley 2.7 · Eduardo Rodriguez 1.7 · Rick Porcello 1.7 · Joe Kelly 1.2
BP★ Koji Uehara 25 · Junichi Tazawa 16 · Alexi Ogando 12 · Robbie Ross Jr. 12 · Tommy Layne 9 · Jean Machi 4 · Matt Barnes 3 · Craig Breslow 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mookie Betts 22 pre-arb 1454.8 0.5 +14.5
Xander Bogaerts 22 pre-arb 1564.6 0.5 +13.9
Clay Buchholz 30 FA-elig 183.2 12.0 -1.8
David Ortiz 39 FA-elig 1462.9 16.0 -6.9
Wade Miley 28 arb 322.7 3.7 +4.8
Dustin Pedroia 31 FA-elig 932.3 12.5 -5.2
Brock Holt 27 arb 1292.0 0.5 +5.9
Jackie Bradley Jr. 25 pre-arb 741.9 0.5 +5.4
Eduardo Rodriguez 22 – 211.7 0.4 +5.1
Rick Porcello 26 FA-elig 281.7 12.5 -7.2
Travis Shaw 25 – 651.5 0.2 +4.4
Koji Uehara 40 FA-elig 431.4 9.0 -4.6
Joe Kelly 27 arb 251.2 0.6 +3.3
Rich Hill 35 FA-elig 41.2 0.1 +3.6
Junichi Tazawa 29 FA-elig 611.1 2.2 +1.3
Alejandro De Aza↔ BAL 31 FA-elig 601.0 2.6 +0.6
Blake Swihart 23 – 840.9 0.4 +2.5
Ryan Hanigan 34 FA-elig 540.7 3.5 -1.1
Henry Owens 22 – 110.7 0.2 +2.0
Shane Victorino↔ ANA 34 FA-elig 330.3 6.0 -5.0
Tommy Layne 30 arb 640.2 0.6 -0.0
Josh Rutledge 26 arb 390.2 0.2 +0.3
Robbie Ross Jr. 26 arb 540.1 0.6 -0.2
Anthony Varvaro 30 arb 90.1 0.6 -0.3
Rusney Castillo 27 pre-arb 800.1 11.3 -11.0
Jemile Weeks 28 pre-arb 30.1 0.0 +0.2
Brian Johnson 24 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Jeff Bianchi 28 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Justin Masterson 30 FA-elig 18-0.0 9.5 -9.6
Carlos Peguero↔ TEX 28 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Luis Jimenez↔ MIL 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Mike Napoli↔ TEX 33 FA-elig 98-0.0 11.8 -11.9
Dalier Hinojosa↔ PHI 29 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Roman Mendez↔ TEX 24 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Jonathan Aro 24 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Garin Cecchini 24 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Steven Wright 30 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Heath Hembree 26 pre-arb 22-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Noé Ramirez 25 – 17-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Edward Mujica↔ OAK 31 FA-elig 11-0.3 1.1 -2.0
Jean Machi↔ SFG 33 arb 26-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Matt Barnes 25 pre-arb 32-0.4 0.5 -1.7
Deven Marrero 24 – 25-0.4 0.2 -1.4
Ryan Cook↔ OAK 28 arb 5-0.4 0.8 -2.2
Daniel Nava↔ TBR 32 arb 29-0.5 0.9 -2.4
Craig Breslow 34 FA-elig 45-0.6 2.0 -3.8
Sandy León 26 arb 41-0.8 0.5 -3.2
Alexi Ogando 31 arb 64-0.8 1.5 -4.2
Allen Craig 30 arb 36-0.9 5.5 -8.3
Pablo Sandoval 28 FA-elig 126-1.2 17.6 -21.4
Hanley Ramirez 31 FA-elig 105-1.2 19.8 -23.7

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Wade Miley2.7
Eduardo Rodriguez1.7
Rick Porcello1.7
Travis Shaw1.5
Rich Hill1.2
Alejandro De Aza1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Jon Lester3.8
John Lackey2.0
Andrew Miller1.3
David Ross1.1
Yoenis Cespedes0.9
Burke Badenhop0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$171.0M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Hanley Ramirez319.014$19.8MFREE AGENT
Pablo Sandoval286.047$17.6MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3916.048$16.0MFREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia3114.041$12.5MFREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz306.059$12.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Napoli338.151$11.8MFREE AGENT
Justin Masterson307.000$9.5MFREE AGENT
Koji Uehara406.000$9.0MFREE AGENT
Shane Victorino349.092$6.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Hanigan346.077$3.5MFREE AGENT
Alejandro De Aza318.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Craig Breslow347.088$2.0MFREE AGENT
Edward Mujica317.115$1.1MFREE AGENT
Rich Hill356.100$72kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Rick Porcello265.170$12.5MFREE AGENT
Allen Craig304.077$5.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Miley283.044$3.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa294.086$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Ogando314.114$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Nava323.045$894kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Cook283.036$778kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Ross Jr.263.000$566kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Rutledge263.090$196kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Rusney Castillo270.012$11.3MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Kelly272.116$603kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Varvaro302.121$576kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Layne300.160$557kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xander Bogaerts221.042$543kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Holt271.052$530kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackie Bradley Jr.252.000$528kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mookie Betts220.070$514kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Wright300.133$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy León261.050$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heath Hembree260.048$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Barnes251.000$508kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garin Cecchini240.019$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Swihart230.000$433kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Rodriguez220.000$361kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Shaw250.000$241kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jean Machi332.154$232kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Owens220.000$169kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Deven Marrero240.000$164kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noé Ramirez250.000$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roman Mendez241.000$102kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Aro240.040$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Jimenez272.000$32kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Johnson240.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Peguero282.008$13kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Bianchi282.066$11kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jemile Weeks282.011$8kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dalier Hinojosa290.046$5kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.