BOS⇄SDP

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net −$8.8M net +0.1

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 1.9 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2015 odds 5% → 6% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan HaniganC·34y·R/R

+$6.6M+$6.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 1.9± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.87/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Josh Byrnes net +$8.8M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2015 odds 4% → 3% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Will Middlebrooks3B·26y·R/R

+$1.7M+$1.7M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.