RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Dan Duquette

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.9× league · TAB +0.5
+0.5TAB — talent above budget14th/30
+0.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars12th/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
39%dead money %15th/30
0.500win %16th/30
33.4roster fWAR14th/30
-3surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$110Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFAdam Jones 134GGerardo Parra 41GDavid Lough 26G
LFGerardo Parra 53GDavid Lough 49GSteve Pearce 41G
RFGerardo Parra 63GDelmon Young 40GChris Davis 30G
SSJ.J. Hardy 114GEverth Cabrera 27GRyan Flaherty 15G
2BJonathan Schoop 84GRyan Flaherty 56GSteve Pearce 18G
3BManny Machado 156GRyan Flaherty 8GJimmy Paredes 8G
1BChris Davis 111GSteve Pearce 28GChris Parmelee 25G
STARTERSWei-Yin Chen 2.8WARUbaldo Jiménez 2.7WARChris Tillman 1.9WARKevin Gausman 1.5WARMiguel González 0.5WAR
CCaleb Joseph 94GMatt Wieters 55GSteve Clevenger 9G
DHJimmy Paredes 81GChris Davis 22GSteve Clevenger 18G
BULLPEN★ Zack Britton 36svDarren O'Day 18hBrad Brach 15hChaz Roe 4hMychal Givens 4hT.J. McFarland 3hBrian Matusz 2hJason García 0h
CCaleb Joseph 94 · Matt Wieters 55 · Steve Clevenger 9
1BChris Davis 111 · Steve Pearce 28 · Chris Parmelee 25
2BJonathan Schoop 84 · Ryan Flaherty 56 · Steve Pearce 18
3BManny Machado 156 · Ryan Flaherty 8 · Jimmy Paredes 8
SSJ.J. Hardy 114 · Everth Cabrera 27 · Ryan Flaherty 15
LFGerardo Parra 53 · David Lough 49 · Steve Pearce 41
CFAdam Jones 134 · Gerardo Parra 41 · David Lough 26
RFGerardo Parra 63 · Delmon Young 40 · Chris Davis 30
DHJimmy Paredes 81 · Chris Davis 22 · Steve Clevenger 18
SPWei-Yin Chen 2.8 · Ubaldo Jiménez 2.7 · Chris Tillman 1.9 · Kevin Gausman 1.5 · Miguel González 0.5
BP★ Zack Britton 36 · Darren O'Day 18 · Brad Brach 15 · Chaz Roe 4 · Mychal Givens 4 · T.J. McFarland 3 · Brian Matusz 2 · Jason García 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Manny Machado 22 arb 1626.6 0.5 +20.3
Chris Davis 29 FA-elig 1605.4 12.0 +5.1
Adam Jones 29 FA-elig 1373.4 13.3 -2.6
Wei-Yin Chen 29 arb 312.8 4.8 +4.0
Ubaldo Jiménez 31 FA-elig 322.7 12.2 -3.9
Zack Britton 27 arb 642.1 3.2 +3.4
Caleb Joseph 29 pre-arb 1002.1 0.5 +6.1
Chris Tillman 27 FA-elig 311.9 4.3 +1.8
Darren O'Day 32 FA-elig 681.8 4.2 +1.4
Kevin Gausman 24 pre-arb 251.5 0.5 +4.3
Jonathan Schoop 23 pre-arb 861.3 0.5 +3.5
Brad Brach 29 arb 620.9 0.5 +2.4
Mychal Givens 25 – 220.9 0.2 +2.5
Miguel González 31 arb 260.5 3.3 -1.5
Brian Matusz 28 FA-elig 580.5 3.2 -1.5
Tommy Hunter↔ CHC 28 FA-elig 390.5 3.1 -1.5
Nolan Reimold 31 arb 610.4 0.3 +1.1
Tyler Wilson 25 pre-arb 90.4 0.1 +1.1
Matt Wieters 29 FA-elig 750.3 8.3 -7.2
Chaz Roe 28 pre-arb 360.2 0.4 +0.4
Ryan Flaherty 28 arb 910.2 1.1 -0.4
Jimmy Paredes 26 arb 1040.2 0.5 +0.1
Oliver Drake 28 – 130.1 0.1 +0.4
Paul Janish 32 arb 140.1 0.1 +0.3
Steve Pearce 32 FA-elig 920.1 3.7 -3.3
Dariel Álvarez 26 pre-arb 120.1 0.1 +0.2
Rey Navarro 25 – 100.1 0.1 +0.1
Travis Snider↔ PIT 27 FA-elig 690.0 1.7 -1.6
J.J. Hardy 32 FA-elig 1140.0 11.5 -11.4
Wesley Wright↔ ANA 30 FA-elig 20.0 0.3 -0.3
Cesar Cabral 26 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Chris Parmelee 27 pre-arb 32-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Henry Urrutia 28 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Steve Clevenger 29 arb 30-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Christian Walker 24 – 7-0.0 0.1 -0.2
T.J. McFarland 26 pre-arb 30-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jason García 22 pre-arb 21-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jorge Rondon↔ COL 27 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Steve Johnson 27 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.1 -0.6
David Lough 29 arb 84-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Alejandro De Aza↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 30-0.3 1.3 -2.2
Mike Wright Jr. 25 – 12-0.3 – –
Bud Norris↔ SDP 30 FA-elig 18-0.3 4.2 -5.2
Ryan Lavarnway↔ ATL 27 – 10-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Junior Lake↔ CHC 25 pre-arb 8-0.4 0.0 -1.3
Gerardo Parra↔ MIL 28 FA-elig 55-0.4 2.2 -3.5
Everth Cabrera 28 FA-elig 29-0.4 2.4 -3.8
Delmon Young 29 FA-elig 52-0.5 2.2 -3.9

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Mychal Givens0.9
Nolan Reimold0.4
Tyler Wilson0.4
Chaz Roe0.2
Oliver Drake0.1
Paul Janish0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Nelson Cruz3.9
Andrew Miller1.0
Ryan Webb0.7
Kelly Johnson0.1
Jemile Weeks0.1
Ramon E Ramirez0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$109.6M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Adam Jones297.139$13.3MFREE AGENT
Ubaldo Jiménez317.087$12.2MFREE AGENT
J.J. Hardy3212.164$11.5MFREE AGENT
Darren O'Day326.103$4.2MFREE AGENT
Steve Pearce328.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Delmon Young298.028$2.2MFREE AGENT
Alejandro De Aza318.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Christian Walker248.124$53kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Chris Davis295.061$12.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Wieters295.129$8.3MFREE AGENT
Wei-Yin Chen293.000$4.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tillman273.113$4.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bud Norris305.068$4.2MFREE AGENT
Brian Matusz284.156$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Hunter285.090$3.1MFREE AGENT
Everth Cabrera284.144$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerardo Parra285.145$2.2MFREE AGENT
Travis Snider274.091$1.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Flaherty283.000$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wesley Wright305.105$309kFREE AGENT
Nolan Reimold315.004$288kFREE AGENT
Paul Janish324.115$111kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Miguel González310.122$3.3MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Britton272.158$3.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Machado222.056$548kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Lough291.169$526kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Brach292.063$523kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman240.164$522kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. McFarland261.138$519kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Schoop231.027$515kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Paredes262.059$515kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Joseph290.145$515kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Clevenger292.123$514kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason García221.002$507kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chaz Roe280.079$372kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mychal Givens250.000$175kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Parmelee272.058$125kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Lavarnway271.133$122kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Drake280.000$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Johnson271.046$92kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Rondon270.061$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dariel Álvarez260.045$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rey Navarro25–$75k
Tyler Wilson251.037$72kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Urrutia280.070$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Lake251.073$28kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Cabral261.113$11kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Wright Jr.250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.