BOS⇄BAL

BOSBOS Dave Dombrowski net −$0.8M net +1.0

received +$18.4M+$18.4M ± $32M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 3.5 ± 4 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2015 odds 5% → 6% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alejandro De AzaOF·31y·L/L

+$18.1M+$18.1M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 3.5± 4 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.31/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$0.8M net -1.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2015 odds 17% → 14% (-3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe GunkelP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#533 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.