RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Andy MacPhail

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.91× league · TAB -16.9
-16.9TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-11.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-10.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
64%dead money %29th/30
0.426win %27th/30
16.2roster fWAR28th/30
-45surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/30
$87Mpayroll $M17th/30

Roster

CFAdam Jones 148GMatt Angle 16GFelix Pie 6G
LFNolan Reimold 73GFelix Pie 67GLuke Scott 45G
RFNick Markakis 157GNolan Reimold 8GFelix Pie 3G
SSJ.J. Hardy 129GRobert Andino 30GCésar Izturis 12G
2BRobert Andino 94GBrian Roberts 39GRyan Adams 26G
3BMark Reynolds 114GChris Davis 26GRobert Andino 22G
1BMark Reynolds 44GChris Davis 31GLuke Scott 12G
STARTERSZack Britton 2.3WARJeremy Guthrie 1.8WARChris Tillman 1.1WARAlfredo Simon 0.9WARTommy Hunter 0.4WAR
CMatt Wieters 132GCraig Tatum 30GJake Fox 10G
DHVladimir Guerrero 137GNolan Reimold 6GLuke Scott 4G
BULLPEN★ Kevin Gregg 22svJim Johnson 18hJason Berken 5hClay Rapada 5hPedro Strop 4hWillie Eyre 3hJeremy Accardo 2hTroy Patton 2h
CMatt Wieters 132 · Craig Tatum 30 · Jake Fox 10
1BMark Reynolds 44 · Chris Davis 31 · Luke Scott 12
2BRobert Andino 94 · Brian Roberts 39 · Ryan Adams 26
3BMark Reynolds 114 · Chris Davis 26 · Robert Andino 22
SSJ.J. Hardy 129 · Robert Andino 30 · César Izturis 12
LFNolan Reimold 73 · Felix Pie 67 · Luke Scott 45
CFAdam Jones 148 · Matt Angle 16 · Felix Pie 6
RFNick Markakis 157 · Nolan Reimold 8 · Felix Pie 3
DHVladimir Guerrero 137 · Nolan Reimold 6 · Luke Scott 4
SPZack Britton 2.3 · Jeremy Guthrie 1.8 · Chris Tillman 1.1 · Alfredo Simon 0.9 · Tommy Hunter 0.4
BP★ Kevin Gregg 22 · Jim Johnson 18 · Jason Berken 5 · Clay Rapada 5 · Pedro Strop 4 · Willie Eyre 3 · Jeremy Accardo 2 · Troy Patton 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Matt Wieters 25 pre-arb 1395.0 0.5 +11.8
J.J. Hardy 28 FA-elig 1294.5 5.8 +5.1
Adam Jones 25 arb 1512.5 3.2 +2.8
Zack Britton 23 – 282.3 0.4 +5.2
Jeremy Guthrie 32 FA-elig 351.8 5.8 -1.4
Nick Markakis 27 arb 1601.5 10.6 -7.0
Robert Andino 27 FA-elig 1391.4 0.4 +3.1
Nolan Reimold 27 pre-arb 871.3 0.4 +2.7
Jim Johnson 28 arb 691.2 1.0 +2.0
Koji Uehara↔ TEX 36 pre-arb 431.1 2.0 +0.8
Chris Tillman 23 pre-arb 131.1 0.4 +2.2
Alfredo Simon 30 pre-arb 230.9 0.4 +1.9
Troy Patton 25 pre-arb 200.5 0.4 +0.9
Pedro Strop↔ TEX 26 pre-arb 120.5 0.2 +1.0
Tommy Hunter↔ TEX 24 arb 120.4 0.3 +0.7
Mark Reynolds 27 arb 1550.1 5.3 -5.0
Cesar Izturis 31 FA-elig 180.1 1.5 -1.3
Willie Eyre 32 arb 190.1 0.1 +0.1
Brad Bergesen 25 pre-arb 340.1 0.4 -0.2
Zach Phillips 24 pre-arb 100.1 0.4 -0.3
Michael Gonzalez↔ TEX 33 FA-elig 490.0 5.2 -5.2
Blake Davis 27 – 250.0 – –
Brandon Snyder 24 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Craig Tatum 28 – 31-0.0 – –
Clay Rapada 30 pre-arb 32-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Brian Roberts 33 FA-elig 39-0.0 10.0 -10.1
Luke Scott 33 FA-elig 64-0.1 6.4 -6.5
Mark Hendrickson 37 – 8-0.1 – –
Matt Angle 25 pre-arb 31-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Derrek Lee↔ PIT 35 FA-elig 85-0.1 5.5 -5.6
Chris Jakubauskas 32 – 34-0.1 – –
Jake Arrieta 25 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Pedro Florimón 24 – 4-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Pedro Viola 28 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Jo-Jo Reyes↔ TOR 26 arb 9-0.3 0.1 -0.8
Jake Fox 28 arb 27-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Jeremy Accardo 29 FA-elig 31-0.3 1.1 -1.8
Mark Worrell 28 – 4-0.3 – –
Josh Rupe 28 FA-elig 9-0.4 0.5 -1.3
Chris Davis↔ TEX 25 pre-arb 31-0.4 0.1 -1.0
Mitch Atkins 25 – 3-0.4 – –
Rick Van Den Hurk 26 – 4-0.4 0.1 -1.1
Kevin Gregg 33 FA-elig 63-0.4 4.2 -5.3
Kyle Hudson 24 pre-arb 14-0.5 0.1 -1.2
Ryan Adams 24 – 29-0.5 0.3 -1.6
Jason Berken 27 pre-arb 40-0.6 0.4 -1.8
Vladimir Guerrero 36 FA-elig 145-0.6 7.6 -9.1
Josh Bell 24 pre-arb 26-0.8 0.4 -2.3
Brian Matusz 24 pre-arb 12-1.2 1.4 -4.2
Felix Pie 26 arb 85-2.2 1.0 -6.5

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
J.J. Hardy4.5
Zack Britton2.3
Pedro Strop0.5
Tommy Hunter0.4
Mark Reynolds0.1
Willie Eyre0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Kevin Millwood1.1
Corey Patterson0.9
David Hernandez0.7
Matt Albers0.0
Scott Moore0.0
Will Ohman0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$86.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Brian Roberts338.131$10.0M$10.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Vladimir Guerrero3614.018$7.6MFREE AGENT
J.J. Hardy2812.164$5.8M$7.0M$7.0M$7.0M$11.5M$12.5M$14.0M
Derrek Lee3512.125$5.5MFREE AGENT
Michael Gonzalez338.000$5.2MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gregg337.002$4.2M$5.8MFREE AGENT
Cesar Izturis319.074$1.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Rupe286.000$475kFREE AGENT
Mark Hendrickson379.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Nick Markakis275.000$10.6MFREE AGENT
Luke Scott334.144$6.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Guthrie324.130$5.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Reynolds273.138$5.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Jones253.139$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Accardo294.021$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Pie263.012$985kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fox284.000$424kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jo-Jo Reyes263.007$136kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willie Eyre323.000$111kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Van Den Hurk264.000$68kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Koji Uehara362.000$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Matusz241.062$1.4MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Johnson282.165$975kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wieters251.129$452kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Bergesen251.160$434kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Berken271.132$426kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Andino272.094$422kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta250.116$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tillman230.133$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Simon302.012$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Viola280.084$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Rapada302.127$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Florimón240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Angle250.043$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Phillips240.091$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Bell24–$414k
Nolan Reimold271.144$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Snyder240.033$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Troy Patton251.073$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Britton230.000$360kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Adams24–$301k
Tommy Hunter241.090$265kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Strop260.094$217kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Davis251.120$147kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Hudson240.028$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Atkins25–—
Mark Worrell28–—
Craig Tatum282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Davis27–—
Chris Jakubauskas322.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.