RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Andy MacPhail

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.88× league · TAB -14.0
-14.0TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-14.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-7.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag24th/30
36%dead money %18th/30
0.407win %27th/30
18.7roster fWAR28th/30
-34surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$80Mpayroll $M17th/30

Roster

CFAdam Jones 149GCorey Patterson 10GFelix Pie 9G
LFFelix Pie 70GCorey Patterson 56GNolan Reimold 22G
RFNick Markakis 159GLuis Montanez 2GFelix Pie 2G
SSCésar Izturis 150GJulio Lugo 26GRobert Andino 7G
2BJulio Lugo 59GBrian Roberts 59GTy Wigginton 40G
3BJosh Bell 50GTy Wigginton 22GJulio Lugo 7G
1BTy Wigginton 98GGarrett Atkins 30GLuke Scott 19G
STARTERSBrian Matusz 2.8WARJeremy Guthrie 2.4WARKevin Millwood 1.1WARJake Arrieta 0.8WARDavid Hernandez 0.7WAR
CMatt Wieters 126GCraig Tatum 42GJake Fox 19G
DHLuke Scott 93GJake Fox 24GCorey Patterson 17G
BULLPEN★ Alfredo Simon 17svJim Johnson 11hMichael Gonzalez 10hMark Hendrickson 8hJason Berken 7hMatt Albers 7hKoji Uehara 6hCla Meredith 3h
CMatt Wieters 126 · Craig Tatum 42 · Jake Fox 19
1BTy Wigginton 98 · Garrett Atkins 30 · Luke Scott 19
2BJulio Lugo 59 · Brian Roberts 59 · Ty Wigginton 40
3BJosh Bell 50 · Ty Wigginton 22 · Julio Lugo 7
SSCésar Izturis 150 · Julio Lugo 26 · Robert Andino 7
LFFelix Pie 70 · Corey Patterson 56 · Nolan Reimold 22
CFAdam Jones 149 · Corey Patterson 10 · Felix Pie 9
RFNick Markakis 159 · Luis Montanez 2 · Felix Pie 2
DHLuke Scott 93 · Jake Fox 24 · Corey Patterson 17
SPBrian Matusz 2.8 · Jeremy Guthrie 2.4 · Kevin Millwood 1.1 · Jake Arrieta 0.8 · David Hernandez 0.7
BP★ Alfredo Simon 17 · Jim Johnson 11 · Michael Gonzalez 10 · Mark Hendrickson 8 · Jason Berken 7 · Matt Albers 7 · Koji Uehara 6 · Cla Meredith 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brian Matusz 23 pre-arb 322.8 1.3 +5.2
Luke Scott 32 arb 1312.7 4.0 +2.4
Matt Wieters 24 pre-arb 1302.7 0.4 +6.0
Adam Jones 24 arb 1492.5 0.5 +5.3
Nick Markakis 26 arb 1602.4 7.1 -1.4
Jeremy Guthrie 31 FA-elig 322.4 3.0 +2.5
Brian Roberts 32 FA-elig 591.4 10.0 -6.7
Koji Uehara 35 pre-arb 431.3 5.0 -1.9
Kevin Millwood 35 FA-elig 311.1 12.0 -9.5
Corey Patterson 30 – 900.9 – –
Jake Arrieta 24 – 180.8 0.3 +1.7
David Hernandez 25 pre-arb 410.7 0.4 +1.3
Jason Berken 26 pre-arb 410.7 0.4 +1.3
Michael Gonzalez 32 FA-elig 290.7 6.0 -4.4
Craig Tatum 27 pre-arb 430.7 0.4 +1.2
Jim Johnson 27 arb 260.6 0.4 +0.9
Brad Bergesen 24 pre-arb 300.5 0.4 +0.8
Robert Andino 26 – 160.4 – –
Felix Pie 25 arb 820.4 0.4 +0.4
Mark Hendrickson 36 FA-elig 520.3 1.2 -0.4
Rick Van Den Hurk↔ MIA 25 – 70.1 – –
Brandon Snyder 23 – 100.1 – –
Matt Albers 27 arb 620.0 0.7 -0.6
Scott Moore 26 – 410.0 – –
Will Ohman↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 510.0 1.0 -1.0
Troy Patton 24 – 1-0.0 – –
Pedro Viola 27 – 2-0.0 – –
Kam Mickolio 26 – 3-0.1 – –
Rhyne Hughes 26 – 14-0.1 – –
Frank Mata 26 – 15-0.1 – –
Ty Wigginton 32 FA-elig 154-0.2 3.5 -3.9
Armando Gabino 26 – 5-0.3 – –
Jake Fox↔ OAK 27 arb 38-0.3 0.2 -0.9
Miguel Tejada↔ SDP 36 FA-elig 97-0.3 3.7 -4.4
Chris Tillman 22 – 11-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Justin Turner↔ NYM 25 – 5-0.3 0.0 -0.7
Cesar Izturis 30 FA-elig 150-0.3 2.6 -3.4
Cla Meredith 27 arb 21-0.4 0.8 -1.8
Alberto Castillo 34 – 14-0.4 – –
Julio Lugo 34 FA-elig 93-0.5 9.2 -10.5
Josh Bell 23 – 53-0.5 – –
Nolan Reimold 26 pre-arb 39-0.7 0.4 -2.0
Luis Montanez 28 – 26-0.7 – –
Alfredo Simon 29 – 49-0.8 0.4 -2.2
Garrett Atkins 30 FA-elig 44-1.2 4.0 -6.8

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Kevin Millwood1.1
Corey Patterson0.9
Jake Arrieta0.8
Michael Gonzalez0.7
Craig Tatum0.7
Rick Van Den Hurk0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Gregg Zaun2.4
George Sherrill1.0
Rich Hill0.5
Michael Aubrey0.4
Melvin Mora0.3
Oscar Salazar0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$80.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Kevin Millwood3513.000$12.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Roberts329.000$10.0M$10.0M$10.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Julio Lugo3410.000$9.2MFREE AGENT
Michael Gonzalez327.000$6.0M$5.2MFREE AGENT
Garrett Atkins307.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Miguel Tejada3613.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Ty Wigginton328.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Guthrie316.000$3.0M$5.8MFREE AGENT
Cesar Izturis309.000$2.6M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Hendrickson368.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Will Ohman3210.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Corey Patterson307.083—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Nick Markakis264.000$7.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Scott325.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Cla Meredith275.000$850kFREE AGENT
Matt Albers274.000$680kARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Jones244.000$465kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Johnson274.000$440kARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Pie253.000$420kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fox273.000$200kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Andino265.000—FREE AGENT
Scott Moore264.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Van Den Hurk253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Koji Uehara351.000$5.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Matusz231.000$1.3MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Bergesen241.000$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hernandez251.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Simon292.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Tatum271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Reimold261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wieters241.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Berken261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tillman220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta240.000$255kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Turner250.000$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Montanez282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Castillo34–—
Rhyne Hughes26–—
Josh Bell23–—
Troy Patton240.073—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank Mata26–—
Armando Gabino26–—
Brandon Snyder230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Viola271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kam Mickolio262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.