LAD⇄BAL

LADLAD Ned Colletti net +$1.6M net +0.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jarret MartinP·22y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#536 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tyler Henson3B·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#145 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net −$1.6M net +0.0

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $17M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Dana EvelandP·28y·L/L

+$7.9M+$7.9M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#469 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.