BAL⇄TEX

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net +$79.2M net +12.7

received +$27.2M+$27.2M ± $50M expected surplus · +$70.4M realized received 4.5 ± 6 expected · 13.6 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Tommy HunterP·24y·R/R

+$30.8M+$30.8M± $44M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 4.5± 6 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

#54 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.90/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Chris Davis1B·25y·L/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$67.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 11.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$79.2M net -12.7

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $11M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 1.2 ± 1 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Koji UeharaP·36y·R/R

+$5.7M+$5.7M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

1.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.