TEX⇄BAL

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$1.6M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2011 odds 94% → 93% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nick Green2B/SS·32y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net −$1.6M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2011 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach PhillipsP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#681 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.