PIT⇄BAL

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$8.8M net +0.9

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 2.2 ± 1 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2011 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Derrek Lee1B·35y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 2.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.1/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.19/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net +$8.8M net -0.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2011 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aaron Baker

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.