RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Andy MacPhail

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.7× league · TAB -11.8
-11.8TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-13.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)27th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars28th/30
-7.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
57%dead money %30th/30
0.395win %28th/30
18.0roster fWAR29th/30
-23surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$64Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFAdam Jones 118GFelix Pie 41GJeff Fiorentino 14G
LFNolan Reimold 88GFelix Pie 44GLuke Scott 26G
RFNick Markakis 161GJeff Fiorentino 2GLuis Montanez 2G
SSCésar Izturis 112GRobert Andino 62GTy Wigginton 9G
2BBrian Roberts 158GRobert Andino 8GTy Wigginton 8G
3BMelvin Mora 124GTy Wigginton 39GJustin Turner 7G
1BAubrey Huff 93GTy Wigginton 40GMichael Aubrey 25G
STARTERSBrad Bergesen 2.0WARKoji Uehara 1.8WARJeremy Guthrie 1.4WARBrian Matusz 0.9WARRich Hill 0.5WAR
CMatt Wieters 86GChad Moeller 30GGuillermo Rodriguez 6G
DHLuke Scott 89GTy Wigginton 24GNolan Reimold 10G
BULLPEN★ Jim Johnson 10svDanys Baez 15hMatt Albers 10hChris Ray 6hAlberto Castillo 5hCla Meredith 4hJamie Walker 2hBrian Bass 1h
CMatt Wieters 86 · Chad Moeller 30 · Guillermo Rodriguez 6
1BAubrey Huff 93 · Ty Wigginton 40 · Michael Aubrey 25
2BBrian Roberts 158 · Robert Andino 8 · Ty Wigginton 8
3BMelvin Mora 124 · Ty Wigginton 39 · Justin Turner 7
SSCésar Izturis 112 · Robert Andino 62 · Ty Wigginton 9
LFNolan Reimold 88 · Felix Pie 44 · Luke Scott 26
CFAdam Jones 118 · Felix Pie 41 · Jeff Fiorentino 14
RFNick Markakis 161 · Jeff Fiorentino 2 · Luis Montanez 2
DHLuke Scott 89 · Ty Wigginton 24 · Nolan Reimold 10
SPBrad Bergesen 2.0 · Koji Uehara 1.8 · Jeremy Guthrie 1.4 · Brian Matusz 0.9 · Rich Hill 0.5
BP★ Jim Johnson 10 · Danys Baez 15 · Matt Albers 10 · Chris Ray 6 · Alberto Castillo 5 · Cla Meredith 4 · Jamie Walker 2 · Brian Bass 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brian Roberts 31 FA-elig 1593.5 8.0 +0.3
Gregg Zaun↔ TBR 38 FA-elig 562.4 0.9 +4.9
Nick Markakis 25 arb 1612.1 3.4 +1.8
Brad Bergesen 23 pre-arb 192.0 0.4 +4.3
Koji Uehara 34 pre-arb 121.8 5.0 -0.7
Adam Jones 23 arb 1191.5 0.4 +3.2
Jeremy Guthrie 30 arb 351.4 0.7 +2.6
Luke Scott 31 arb 1281.3 2.4 +0.7
Nolan Reimold 25 – 1041.1 – –
Felix Pie 24 pre-arb 1011.0 0.4 +2.1
George Sherrill↔ LAD 32 arb 421.0 1.6 +0.7
Brian Matusz 22 – 80.9 0.4 +1.7
Matt Wieters 23 – 960.7 0.3 +1.5
Matt Albers 26 arb 560.7 0.4 +1.1
Cesar Izturis 29 FA-elig 1140.5 2.4 -1.1
Rich Hill 29 arb 150.5 0.4 +0.8
Jason Berken 25 – 240.5 – –
Michael Aubrey 27 pre-arb 310.4 0.4 +0.6
Mark Hendrickson 35 FA-elig 530.3 1.5 -0.7
Jim Johnson 26 arb 640.3 0.4 +0.3
Melvin Mora 37 FA-elig 1250.3 8.0 -7.3
Kam Mickolio 25 pre-arb 110.3 0.4 +0.2
Alberto Castillo 33 – 200.2 – –
Oscar Salazar↔ SDP 31 FA-elig 170.2 0.1 +0.3
Danys Baez 31 FA-elig 590.1 7.2 -6.8
Ryan Freel↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 90.1 0.9 -0.7
Sean Henn↔ MIN 28 arb 60.0 0.1 -0.0
Chris Lambert↔ DET 26 – 4-0.0 – –
Cla Meredith↔ SDP 26 arb 29-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Dennis Sarfate 28 arb 20-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Justin Turner 24 – 12-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Chad Moeller 34 FA-elig 30-0.1 0.8 -0.9
Guillermo Rodriguez 31 – 7-0.1 – –
Adam Eaton↔ COL 31 – 8-0.1 – –
Chris Waters 28 – 5-0.1 – –
Radhames Liz 25 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Chris Tillman 21 – 12-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Robert Andino 25 arb 78-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Jeff Fiorentino 26 – 24-0.2 – –
Chris Ray 27 arb 46-0.3 0.8 -1.5
Jamie Walker 37 FA-elig 22-0.4 4.5 -5.4
Bob McCrory 27 – 7-0.4 – –
Alfredo Simon 28 pre-arb 2-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Brian Bass 27 pre-arb 48-0.5 0.4 -1.5
David Hernandez 24 pre-arb 20-0.6 0.4 -1.8
Luis Montanez 27 pre-arb 29-0.6 0.4 -1.9
Aubrey Huff↔ DET 32 FA-elig 110-1.2 5.9 -8.7
Ty Wigginton 31 FA-elig 122-1.6 2.5 -6.3

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Gregg Zaun2.4
Brad Bergesen2.0
Koji Uehara1.8
Nolan Reimold1.1
Felix Pie1.0
Brian Matusz0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Ramon Hernandez1.0
Jay Payton1.0
Garrett Olson1.0
Brian Burres0.6
Chad Bradford0.5
Lance Cormier0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$63.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Melvin Mora3710.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Roberts318.000$8.0M$10.0M$10.0M$10.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Danys Baez318.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
Aubrey Huff329.000$5.9MFREE AGENT
Jamie Walker3712.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Ty Wigginton317.000$2.5M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Cesar Izturis298.000$2.4M$2.6M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Hendrickson357.000$1.5M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Gregg Zaun3814.000$933kFREE AGENT
Ryan Freel338.000$878kFREE AGENT
Chad Moeller349.000$800kFREE AGENT
Oscar Salazar317.000$94kFREE AGENT
Adam Eaton319.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Nick Markakis253.000$3.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Scott314.000$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
George Sherrill325.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Chris Ray274.000$850kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Guthrie305.000$650kFREE AGENT
Rich Hill294.000$445kARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Jones233.000$435kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Johnson263.000$420kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Sarfate283.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Albers263.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Andino254.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cla Meredith264.000$195kARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Henn284.000$150kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Koji Uehara340.000$5.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Matusz220.000$425kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Pie242.000$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bass271.000$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Radhames Liz252.000$402kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kam Mickolio251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Montanez271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hernandez240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Simon281.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Aubrey271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Bergesen230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wieters230.000$282kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tillman210.000$146kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Turner240.000$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Rodriguez31–—
Chris Waters28–—
Alberto Castillo33–—
Jeff Fiorentino26–—
Bob McCrory27–—
Jason Berken250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Reimold250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Lambert26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.