SDP⇄BAL

SDPSDP Jed Hoyer net −$5.6M net +1.1

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 2.2 ± 1 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2010 odds 36% → 42% (+6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel TejadaSS·36y·R/R

+$4.6M+$4.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 2.2± 1 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

2.01/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net +$5.6M net -1.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2010 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wynn PelzerP·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#297 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.