RRosternomics
𝕏

Orioles BAL

‹ ›

GM: Andy MacPhail

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.68× league · TAB -6.6
-6.6TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-8.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-8.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
38%dead money %15th/30
0.422win %26th/30
22.8roster fWAR26th/30
-10surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$60Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFAdam Jones 129GJay Payton 38GLuis Montanez 5G
LFLuke Scott 106GJay Payton 71GLuis Montanez 26G
RFNick Markakis 156GLuis Montanez 5GJay Payton 4G
SSJuan Castro 57GBrandon Fahey 46GAlex Cintron 45G
2BBrian Roberts 154GBrandon Fahey 10GAlex Cintron 7G
3BMelvin Mora 124GAubrey Huff 33GAlex Cintron 8G
1BKevin Millar 130GAubrey Huff 24GOscar Salazar 10G
STARTERSJeremy Guthrie 2.3WARGarrett Olson 1.0WARBrian Burres 0.6WARChris Waters 0.2WARDaniel Cabrera 0.1WAR
CRamon Hernandez 127GGuillermo Quiroz 54GOmir Santos 9G
DHAubrey Huff 98GLuke Scott 26GKevin Millar 14G
BULLPEN★ George Sherrill 31svJim Johnson 19hJamie Walker 9hDennis Sarfate 3hBrian Bass 3hLance Cormier 0hRandor Bierd 0hAlberto Castillo 0h
CRamon Hernandez 127 · Guillermo Quiroz 54 · Omir Santos 9
1BKevin Millar 130 · Aubrey Huff 24 · Oscar Salazar 10
2BBrian Roberts 154 · Brandon Fahey 10 · Alex Cintron 7
3BMelvin Mora 124 · Aubrey Huff 33 · Alex Cintron 8
SSJuan Castro 57 · Brandon Fahey 46 · Alex Cintron 45
LFLuke Scott 106 · Jay Payton 71 · Luis Montanez 26
CFAdam Jones 129 · Jay Payton 38 · Luis Montanez 5
RFNick Markakis 156 · Luis Montanez 5 · Jay Payton 4
DHAubrey Huff 98 · Luke Scott 26 · Kevin Millar 14
SPJeremy Guthrie 2.3 · Garrett Olson 1.0 · Brian Burres 0.6 · Chris Waters 0.2 · Daniel Cabrera 0.1
BP★ George Sherrill 31 · Jim Johnson 19 · Jamie Walker 9 · Dennis Sarfate 3 · Brian Bass 3 · Lance Cormier 0 · Randor Bierd 0 · Alberto Castillo 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2008 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nick Markakis 24 pre-arb 1576.1 0.5 +13.4
Brian Roberts 30 FA-elig 1554.8 6.3 +4.6
Aubrey Huff 31 FA-elig 1543.9 8.0 +1.0
Melvin Mora 36 FA-elig 1353.1 7.8 -0.9
Jeremy Guthrie 29 arb 312.3 0.8 +4.4
Luke Scott 30 arb 1482.1 0.4 +4.3
Adam Jones 22 pre-arb 1321.5 0.4 +3.0
Jim Johnson 25 – 541.0 – –
Ramon Hernandez 32 FA-elig 1331.0 7.5 -5.3
Jay Payton 35 FA-elig 1271.0 5.0 -2.8
Garrett Olson 24 – 261.0 – –
Brian Burres 27 pre-arb 310.6 0.4 +0.9
Oscar Salazar 30 – 340.5 – –
Chad Bradford↔ TBR 33 FA-elig 470.5 2.5 -1.5
Lance Cormier 27 – 450.4 0.5 +0.5
George Sherrill 31 arb 570.4 1.0 -0.2
Brian Bass↔ MIN 26 pre-arb 50.2 0.0 +0.5
Chris Waters 27 – 110.2 – –
Matt Albers 25 pre-arb 280.2 0.4 -0.0
Kam Mickolio 24 – 90.2 – –
Jim Miller 26 – 80.1 – –
Randor Bierd 24 pre-arb 290.1 0.4 -0.2
Daniel Cabrera 27 arb 300.1 2.9 -2.7
Guillermo Quiroz 26 arb 560.1 0.4 -0.3
Scott Moore 24 pre-arb 40.0 0.4 -0.4
Dennis Sarfate 27 pre-arb 57-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Alberto Castillo 32 – 28-0.0 – –
Bob McCrory 26 – 8-0.0 – –
Luis Montanez 26 – 38-0.1 – –
Greg Aquino 30 arb 9-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Alfredo Simon 27 – 4-0.1 – –
Luis Hernandez 24 pre-arb 36-0.2 0.4 -0.7
Kevin Millar 36 FA-elig 145-0.2 3.8 -4.2
Omir Santos 27 – 11-0.2 – –
Ryan Bukvich 30 – 4-0.2 – –
Eider Torres 25 – 8-0.3 – –
Radhames Liz 24 – 17-0.3 – –
Adam Loewen 24 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.8 -1.6
Rocky Cherry 28 pre-arb 18-0.4 0.4 -1.3
Fernando Cabrera 26 arb 22-0.5 0.6 -1.7
Alex Cintron 29 – 61-0.7 – –
Steve Trachsel 37 FA-elig 10-0.8 1.5 -3.3
Brandon Fahey 27 pre-arb 58-0.8 0.4 -2.3
Freddie Bynum Jr. 28 arb 40-0.9 0.4 -2.5
Jamie Walker 36 FA-elig 59-0.9 4.5 -6.7
Juan Castro↔ CIN 36 FA-elig 54-1.1 0.9 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2007)

PlayerfWAR
Luke Scott2.1
Adam Jones1.5
Oscar Salazar0.5
Lance Cormier0.4
George Sherrill0.4
Brian Bass0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2007)

Player2007 fWAR
Erik Bedard5.1
Miguel Tejada1.9
Corey Patterson1.3
Chris Ray0.4
Chris Gomez0.3
Kurt Birkins0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2008 payroll
$60.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2008, 2008–2014. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Aubrey Huff318.000$8.0M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Melvin Mora369.000$7.8M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Ramon Hernandez329.000$7.5MFREE AGENT
Brian Roberts307.000$6.3M$8.0M$10.0M$10.0M$10.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Jay Payton3510.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Jamie Walker3611.000$4.5M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Kevin Millar3610.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Chad Bradford3310.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Steve Trachsel3715.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Juan Castro3613.000$863kFREE AGENT
Oscar Salazar306.000—$306kFREE AGENT
Alex Cintron297.000—FREE AGENT
Ryan Bukvich306.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Daniel Cabrera274.000$2.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
George Sherrill314.000$980kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Guthrie294.000$770kARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cabrera264.000$575kARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Aquino304.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Cormier274.000$450kARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Scott303.000$430kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Quiroz264.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddie Bynum Jr.283.000$390kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Adam Loewen242.000$816kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Markakis242.000$455kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Burres272.000$395kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Albers252.000$395kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Fahey272.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Jones222.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Sarfate272.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Hernandez241.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Cherry281.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Moore242.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randor Bierd240.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bass260.000$40kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Waters27–—
Luis Montanez260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Simon270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Omir Santos27–—
Alberto Castillo32–—
Bob McCrory26–—
Garrett Olson241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Miller260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Johnson252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eider Torres25–—
Radhames Liz241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kam Mickolio240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2008; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.