BAL⇄DET

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net +$20.0M net +0.9

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2009 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brett JacobsonP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#133 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$20.0M net -0.9

received +$4.0M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$20.0M realized received 2.4 ± 2 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2009 odds 12% → 10% (-2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aubrey Huff1B·32y·L/R

+$4.1M−$1.5M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$20.0M 2.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.67/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.