RRosternomics

Diamondbacks ARI

GM: Kevin Towers

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.75× league · TAB +6.2
+6.2TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+2.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-3.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
28%dead money %9th/30
0.500win %16th/30
37.0roster fWAR15th/30
+21surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$75Mpayroll $M22nd/30

Roster

CFChris Young 87GGerardo Parra 48GAdam Eaton 21G
LFJason Kubel 124GGerardo Parra 47GAJ Pollock 7G
RFJustin Upton 149GGerardo Parra 17GAJ Pollock 4G
SSWillie Bloomquist 64GJohn McDonald 54GCody Ransom 48G
2BAaron Hill 153GJake Elmore 5GJohn McDonald 4G
3BChris Johnson 127GCody Ransom 35GRyan Wheeler 23G
1BPaul Goldschmidt 139GRyan Wheeler 4GMike Jacobs 4G
STARTERSWade Miley 4.1WARIan Kennedy 2.5WARTrevor Cahill 2.1WARPatrick Corbin 0.9WARJosh Collmenter 0.6WAR
CMiguel Montero 139GWil Nieves 24GHenry Blanco 21G
DHJason Kubel 6GChris Young 2GLyle Overbay 1G
BULLPEN J.J. Putz 32svDavid Hernandez 25hBrad Ziegler 17hBryan Shaw 10hMatt Albers 9hMatt Lindstrom 5hMike Zagurski 4hBrad Bergesen 0h
CMiguel Montero 139 · Wil Nieves 24 · Henry Blanco 21
1BPaul Goldschmidt 139 · Ryan Wheeler 4 · Mike Jacobs 4
2BAaron Hill 153 · Jake Elmore 5 · John McDonald 4
3BChris Johnson 127 · Cody Ransom 35 · Ryan Wheeler 23
SSWillie Bloomquist 64 · John McDonald 54 · Cody Ransom 48
LFJason Kubel 124 · Gerardo Parra 47 · AJ Pollock 7
CFChris Young 87 · Gerardo Parra 48 · Adam Eaton 21
RFJustin Upton 149 · Gerardo Parra 17 · AJ Pollock 4
DHJason Kubel 6 · Chris Young 2 · Lyle Overbay 1
SPWade Miley 4.1 · Ian Kennedy 2.5 · Trevor Cahill 2.1 · Patrick Corbin 0.9 · Josh Collmenter 0.6
BP J.J. Putz 32 · David Hernandez 25 · Brad Ziegler 17 · Bryan Shaw 10 · Matt Albers 9 · Matt Lindstrom 5 · Mike Zagurski 4 · Brad Bergesen 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Miguel Montero 28 FA-elig 1415.4 5.9 +8.0
Aaron Hill 30 FA-elig 1565.0 5.5 +7.5
Wade Miley 25 pre-arb 324.1 0.5 +10.0
Paul Goldschmidt 24 pre-arb 1452.8 0.5 +6.7
Justin Upton 24 arb 1502.6 6.8 -0.2
Ian Kennedy 27 arb 332.5 0.5 +6.0
Trevor Cahill 24 arb 322.1 3.5 +2.0
David Hernandez 27 arb 722.1 0.5 +4.8
Chris Young 28 FA-elig 1011.8 7.0 -2.3
Jason Kubel 30 FA-elig 1411.5 7.5 -3.6
Gerardo Parra 25 arb 1331.5 0.5 +3.4
J.J. Putz 35 FA-elig 571.4 4.5 -0.8
Joe Saunders↔ BAL 31 FA-elig 211.1 4.5 -1.6
Cody Ransom↔ MIL 36 arb 261.0 0.1 +2.3
Patrick Corbin 22 220.9 0.3 +2.1
Adam Eaton 23 220.8 0.5 +1.6
Chris Johnson↔ HOU 27 arb 440.7 0.2 +1.7
Josh Collmenter 26 pre-arb 280.6 0.5 +1.1
Willie Bloomquist 34 FA-elig 800.6 1.9 -0.3
Brad Ziegler 32 arb 770.6 1.8 -0.2
John McDonald 37 FA-elig 700.5 1.5 -0.2
Matt Lindstrom↔ BAL 32 arb 120.3 0.9 -0.3
Craig Breslow↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 400.2 1.1 -0.7
Wil Nieves↔ COL 34 arb 160.1 0.2 +0.1
Brad Bergesen 26 190.1 0.8 -0.5
Daniel Hudson 25 arb 90.1 0.5 -0.3
Lyle Overbay↔ ATL 35 FA-elig 450.1 0.7 -0.5
Bryan Shaw 24 pre-arb 640.1 0.5 -0.4
Ryan Roberts↔ TBR 31 FA-elig 830.0 1.2 -1.1
Joe Martinez 29 pre-arb 10.0 0.5 -0.4
AJ Pollock 24 31-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Sam Demel 26 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Matt Albers↔ BOS 29 FA-elig 23-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Jonathan Albaladejo 29 arb 3-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Mike Jacobs 31 13-0.1
Tyler Graham 28 10-0.1
Konrad Schmidt 27 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Trevor Bauer 21 pre-arb 4-0.1 1.2 -1.5
Henry Blanco 40 FA-elig 21-0.1 1.2 -1.5
Stephen Drew↔ OAK 29 FA-elig 40-0.2 3.9 -4.5
Mike Zagurski 29 pre-arb 45-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Geoff Blum 39 FA-elig 17-0.3 1.4 -2.0
Tyler Skaggs 20 6-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Joe Paterson 26 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Takashi Saito 42 FA-elig 16-0.3 1.8 -2.5
Ryan Wheeler 23 pre-arb 50-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Jake Elmore 25 30-0.5 0.5 -1.8
Josh Bell 25 pre-arb 21-0.5 0.5 -1.8

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Trevor Cahill2.1
Jason Kubel1.5
Patrick Corbin0.9
Adam Eaton0.8
Chris Johnson0.7
Matt Lindstrom0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Kelly Johnson1.2
Collin Cowgill0.4
Brandon Allen0.3
Jarrod Parker0.2
Kam Mickolio0.1
Cole Gillespie0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$75.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Jason Kubel307.009$7.5M$6.9MFREE AGENT
Aaron Hill306.136$5.5M$5.5M$11.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
J.J. Putz358.022$4.5M$6.5M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Willie Bloomquist349.027$1.9M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Takashi Saito426.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
John McDonald3710.118$1.5MFREE AGENT
Geoff Blum3912.056$1.4MFREE AGENT
Henry Blanco4013.136$1.2MFREE AGENT
Matt Lindstrom328.000$939kFREE AGENT
Lyle Overbay359.026$692kFREE AGENT
Mike Jacobs317.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Chris Young285.045$7.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Upton244.060$6.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Montero285.031$5.9MFREE AGENT
Joe Saunders315.013$4.5MFREE AGENT
Stephen Drew295.079$3.9MFREE AGENT
Trevor Cahill243.000$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Ziegler323.122$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Breslow314.088$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Albers294.141$392kARB 3FREE AGENT
Wil Nieves344.169$184kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Ransom363.012$139kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Trevor Bauer210.000$1.2MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Roberts312.150$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Bergesen262.147$800kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Kennedy272.124$520kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Hudson251.117$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerardo Parra252.145$502kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hernandez272.105$499kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Albaladejo291.157$490kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Paterson261.035$488kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Collmenter261.000$486kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw240.089$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Goldschmidt240.059$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Miley250.044$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Wheeler230.159$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Eaton230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Konrad Schmidt270.021$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Demel261.091$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Elmore250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Martinez291.071$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Bell25$480k
Mike Zagurski292.021$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Skaggs200.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Corbin220.000$275kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Johnson271.144$160kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
AJ Pollock240.000$136kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Graham28

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Diamondbacks 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3