BAL⇄ARI

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2012 odds 6% → 7% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike BelfioreP·23y·R/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#45 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Kevin Towers net −$2.4M net -0.4

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $25M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2012 odds 29% → 26% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh Bell3B·25y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

Composite #60.0 pedigree (Baseball America #60 (2012)) → 0.38/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.