CLE⇄CIN⇄ARI

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$76.8M net +14.9

received +$79.2M+$79.2M ± $62M expected surplus · +$172.8M realized received 11.5 ± 8 expected · 21.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2013 odds 63% → 41% (-22.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trevor BauerP·22y·R/R

+$43.6M+$43.6M± $46M exp surplusrealized +$166.4M 6.3± 6 exp WARrealized 16.6

Prior

Composite #14.0 pedigree (Baseball America #14 (2013)) → 1.36/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

1.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Drew StubbsOF·28y·R/R

+$36.6M+$36.6M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 4.5± 4 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.32/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.51/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Bryan ShawP·25y·B/R

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized 3.0

Prior

#73 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Matt AlbersP·30y·L/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Walt Jocketty net +$88.8M net +3.5

received +$28.8M+$28.8M ± $24M expected surplus · +$99.2M realized received 3.5 ± 3 expected · 6.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2013 odds 24% → 44% (+19.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shin-Soo ChooOF·30y·L/L

+$28.2M+$28.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$99.2M 2.7± 1 exp WARrealized 6.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

2.67/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Jason Donald2B/SS·28y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.71 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Kevin Towers net −$165.6M net -18.4

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 2.7 ± 4 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2013 odds 5% → 5% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Didi GregoriusSS·23y·L/R

+$7.9M+$7.9M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

Composite #80.0 pedigree (Baseball America #80 (2013)) → 0.43/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tony SippP·29y·L/L

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Lars Anderson1B·25y·L/L

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#553 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.