ARI⇄ANA

ARIARI Kevin Towers net +$3.2M net +0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2012 odds 26% → 26% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Frazier Hall1B·24y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#495 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net −$3.2M net -0.4

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $32M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2012 odds 64% → 64% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Barry EnrightP·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#73 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.