RRosternomics

Diamondbacks ARI

GM: Kevin Towers

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.61× league · TAB +14.3
+14.3TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+18.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
40%dead money %19th/30
0.580win %6th/30
42.3roster fWAR7th/30
+47surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$58Mpayroll $M26th/30

2011: made playoffs · 94–68. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFChris Young 155GCollin Cowgill 10GGerardo Parra 2G
LFGerardo Parra 125GWillie Bloomquist 25GCollin Cowgill 18G
RFJustin Upton 159GGerardo Parra 14GCole Gillespie 2G
SSStephen Drew 84GWillie Bloomquist 59GJohn McDonald 38G
2BAaron Hill 137GRyan Roberts 28GWillie Bloomquist 1G
3BRyan Roberts 107GMelvin Mora 31GSean Burroughs 20G
1BLyle Overbay 109GXavier Nady 52GJuan Miranda 46G
STARTERSDaniel Hudson 5.1WARIan Kennedy 4.4WARJosh Collmenter 2.1WARZach Duke 1.0WARJoe Saunders 0.5WAR
CMiguel Montero 134GHenry Blanco 37G
BULLPEN J.J. Putz 45svDavid Hernandez 23hBrad Ziegler 10hJoe Paterson 10hBryan Shaw 9hSam Demel 6hAaron Heilman 5hMicah Owings 3h
CMiguel Montero 134 · Henry Blanco 37
1BLyle Overbay 109 · Xavier Nady 52 · Juan Miranda 46
2BAaron Hill 137 · Ryan Roberts 28 · Willie Bloomquist 1
3BRyan Roberts 107 · Melvin Mora 31 · Sean Burroughs 20
SSStephen Drew 84 · Willie Bloomquist 59 · John McDonald 38
LFGerardo Parra 125 · Willie Bloomquist 25 · Collin Cowgill 18
CFChris Young 155 · Collin Cowgill 10 · Gerardo Parra 2
RFJustin Upton 159 · Gerardo Parra 14 · Cole Gillespie 2
SPDaniel Hudson 5.1 · Ian Kennedy 4.4 · Josh Collmenter 2.1 · Zach Duke 1.0 · Joe Saunders 0.5
BP J.J. Putz 45 · David Hernandez 23 · Brad Ziegler 10 · Joe Paterson 10 · Bryan Shaw 9 · Sam Demel 6 · Aaron Heilman 5 · Micah Owings 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Justin Upton 23 arb 1596.3 4.5 +11.0
Miguel Montero 27 arb 1405.9 3.2 +11.1
Daniel Hudson 24 pre-arb 335.1 0.4 +12.1
Chris Young 27 arb 1564.7 5.2 +6.2
Ian Kennedy 26 arb 344.4 0.4 +10.4
Ryan Roberts 30 arb 1433.6 0.4 +8.3
Gerardo Parra 24 pre-arb 1412.6 0.4 +6.0
Josh Collmenter 25 312.1 0.4 +4.7
Stephen Drew 28 arb 861.6 4.7 -0.7
Aaron Hill↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 331.5 1.2 +2.6
J.J. Putz 34 FA-elig 601.4 4.0 -0.7
Kelly Johnson↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 1141.2 4.5 -1.5
David Hernandez 26 pre-arb 741.1 0.4 +2.4
Zach Duke 28 FA-elig 211.0 3.5 -0.9
Henry Blanco 39 FA-elig 370.9 1.0 +1.3
Paul Goldschmidt 23 480.7 0.1 +1.5
Joe Saunders 30 FA-elig 330.5 5.5 -4.3
Collin Cowgill 25 370.4 0.4 +0.5
Brandon Allen↔ OAK 25 110.3 0.1 +0.8
Brad Ziegler↔ OAK 31 arb 230.3 0.4 +0.4
Geoff Blum 38 FA-elig 230.3 1.4 -0.6
Joe Paterson 25 pre-arb 620.3 0.4 +0.2
Jarrod Parker 22 10.2 0.4 +0.2
Kam Mickolio 27 arb 60.1 0.4 -0.1
Lyle Overbay↔ PIT 34 FA-elig 180.1 0.7 -0.4
Cole Gillespie 27 50.1
Bryan Shaw 23 330.1 0.4 -0.1
Juan Miranda 28 arb 650.1 0.4 -0.2
John McDonald↔ TOR 36 FA-elig 190.0 0.3 -0.3
Josh Wilson↔ MIL 30 FA-elig 60.0 0.1 -0.0
Alberto Castillo 35 17-0.0
Esmerling Vasquez 27 31-0.0
Willie Bloomquist 33 FA-elig 97-0.0 0.9 -1.0
Ryan Cook 24 12-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Micah Owings 28 34-0.0
Russell Branyan↔ ANA 35 FA-elig 31-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Zach Kroenke 27 4-0.0
Robby Hammock 34 2-0.1
Sean Burroughs 30 78-0.1
Wily Mo Peña↔ SEA 29 17-0.1
Yhency Brazoban 30 6-0.1
Juan Gutierrez 27 arb 20-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Wade Miley 24 8-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Cody Ransom 35 12-0.2
Xavier Nady 32 FA-elig 82-0.3 1.8 -2.4
Jason Marquis↔ WSN 32 FA-elig 3-0.3 0.8 -1.6
Aaron Heilman 32 FA-elig 32-0.4 2.0 -2.9
Sam Demel 25 pre-arb 34-0.6 0.4 -1.8
Barry Enright 25 pre-arb 8-0.6 0.4 -1.9
Melvin Mora 39 FA-elig 42-0.7 2.4 -3.9
Armando Galarraga 29 arb 8-1.2 2.3 -5.3

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Josh Collmenter2.1
Aaron Hill1.5
J.J. Putz1.4
David Hernandez1.1
Zach Duke1.0
Henry Blanco0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Dan Haren2.9
Mark Reynolds1.7
Edwin Jackson1.4
Ryan Church0.5
D.J. Carrasco0.1
Mike Hampton0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$57.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
J.J. Putz347.022$4.0M$4.5M$6.5M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Melvin Mora3913.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Aaron Heilman326.123$2.0MFREE AGENT
Xavier Nady327.059$1.8MFREE AGENT
Geoff Blum3812.056$1.4M$1.4MFREE AGENT
Henry Blanco3912.136$1.0M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Willie Bloomquist338.027$900k$1.9M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Jason Marquis3210.012$804kFREE AGENT
Lyle Overbay348.026$744k$692kFREE AGENT
Russell Branyan359.147$456kFREE AGENT
John McDonald369.118$339k$1.5MFREE AGENT
Wily Mo Peña299.000FREE AGENT
Sean Burroughs309.000FREE AGENT
Robby Hammock348.000FREE AGENT
Yhency Brazoban307.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Joe Saunders304.013$5.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Young274.045$5.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Drew284.079$4.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Johnson295.127$4.5MFREE AGENT
Justin Upton233.060$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Duke285.094$3.5MFREE AGENT
Miguel Montero274.031$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Hill295.136$1.2MFREE AGENT
Juan Gutierrez274.000$430kARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Miranda283.000$420kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kam Mickolio273.000$417kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Wilson303.047$72kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micah Owings284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Armando Galarraga292.148$2.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Ziegler312.122$436kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerardo Parra241.145$426kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Roberts301.150$424kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hernandez261.105$424kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Kennedy261.124$423kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Hudson240.117$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Barry Enright250.096$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Demel251.091$417kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Paterson251.035$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Cook240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Cowgill250.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrod Parker220.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Collmenter250.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Goldschmidt230.000$133kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Miley240.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Allen250.141$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Ransom352.012ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Castillo35
Esmerling Vasquez272.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Kroenke27
Cole Gillespie270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Diamondbacks 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3