RRosternomics
𝕏
TS

Tal Smith

Born Sep 27, 1933 · Framingham, MA · age 92

General manager for the Astros and Yankees (1965–2007).

1 seasons with salary-era data across 4 stints. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record73–89
Win %0.451
-2.7GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.8148th/195 execs
6.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)116th/195 execs
-4.2Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)38th/195 execs
39%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)131st/195 execs
$5MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track139th/195 execs
$-6MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)194th/195 execs
$5MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade73rd/195 execs
$6MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees14th/195 execs
-10.7TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total116th/195 execs
-9.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)113th/195 execs
0.13Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)172nd/195 execs
-39Roster surplus $M93rd/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Astros GM 2007–2007 1 -9.7 -9.75 -10.7 -18.1 +60.5 -2.7 +1.6 -0.4 0.13 0.451 ––– -39
▸ Astros GM 1976–1980 0 +0.0 – +0.0 +0.0 +22.5 +20.5 +0.0 +0.0 – – ––– –
▸ Yankees GM 1975–1975 0 +0.0 – +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +14.7 +0.0 +0.0 – – ––– –
▸ Astros GM 1965–1967 0 +0.0 – +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 – – ––– –
Career total (1985+ data) 1 -9.7 -10.7 -18.1 +83.0 +32.4 +1.6 -0.4 0.13 0.451 –– – -39

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+83.0
Trade+32.4
Free agency+1.6
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.4
Sourcing mix: 67% draft · 4% FA · 29% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Tal Smith's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 41 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
José Altuve 2B HOU Intl FA 2007 15 +60.5 +4.0 –
Bill Doran 2B HOU Draft 1979 6 +16.6 +2.8 –
Willie Randolph 2B NYY Trade 1975 4 +14.7 +3.7 –
Carlos Lee OF HOU Trade 2007 5 +8.5 +1.7 0.3
Bob Knepper P HOU Trade 1980 3 +7.0 +2.3 –
Dave Smith P HOU Draft 1976 6 +6.9 +1.1 –
Denny Walling 1B/3B/OF HOU Trade 1977 5 +6.6 +1.3 –
Alan Ashby C HOU Trade 1978 4 +5.0 +1.2 –
Ty Wigginton 1B/3B HOU Trade 2007 2 +3.4 +1.7 0.1
Mark Loretta 2B HOU Free agency 2007 3 +2.1 +0.7 1.4
Craig Reynolds SS HOU Trade 1978 2 +2.0 +1.0 –
Kazuo Matsui 2B HOU Free agency 2007 2 +1.8 +0.9 2.5
José Valverde P HOU Trade 2007 2 +1.8 +0.9 1.5
Brian Moehler P HOU Trade 2007 4 +1.5 +0.4 0.0
Geoff Blum 3B HOU Free agency 2007 5 +1.4 +0.3 4.6
Jim Pankovits 2B/OF HOU Draft 1976 3 +0.8 +0.3 –
Jeff Calhoun P HOU Draft 1980 1 +0.5 +0.5 –
Dennis Sarfate P HOU Trade 2007 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.1
Manny Hernández P HOU Intl FA 1978 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Woody Williams P HOU Trade 2007 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Jason Jennings P HOU Trade 2007 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
John Mizerock C HOU Draft 1979 1 +0.2 +0.2 –
Doug Brocail P HOU Free agency 2007 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.0
Darin Erstad 1B/OF HOU Free agency 2007 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.9
Cody Ransom 3B/SS HOU Trade 2007 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Ty Gainey OF HOU Draft 1979 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Geoff Geary P HOU Trade 2007 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.8
Chris Jones OF HOU Draft 1979 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Jack Cassel P HOU Free agency 2007 – -0.0 – –
José Cisnero P HOU Intl FA 2007 1 -0.0 -0.0 –
José Cruz OF HOU Free agency 2007 – -0.1 – –
Mark Ross P HOU Draft 1979 – -0.2 – –
Tim Tolman 1B/OF HOU Draft 1978 – -0.2 – –
Tomás Pérez 2B/3B/SS HOU Free agency 2007 – -0.2 – –
Chad Paronto P HOU Free agency 2007 – -0.3 – –
Bert Peña SS HOU Intl FA 1977 1 -0.4 -0.4 –
Steve Randolph P HOU Free agency 2007 – -0.4 – –
Wesley Wright P HOU Rule 5 2007 2 -0.4 -0.2 –
Jeff Heathcock P HOU Draft 1980 1 -0.5 -0.5 –
Óscar Villarreal P HOU Trade 2007 – -1.0 – –
Julio Solano P HOU Intl FA 1979 – -1.6 – –

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

drag to zoom · double-click to reset
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.